Department of Food Engineering, Konya Food and Agriculture University, Konya, Turkey.
Int J Food Microbiol. 2019 Nov 15;309:108330. doi: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2019.108330. Epub 2019 Aug 27.
A probabilistic model based on logistic regression was developed for a target log reduction of microorganisms inactivated by high hydrostatic pressure. Published inactivation data of Salmonella Typhimurium in broth for 4 and 5 log reductions, and Escherichia coli in buffer and carrot juice for 5 log reduction were used. The probabilities of achieving 4 or 5 log reductions for S. Typhimurium in broth and 5 log reduction for E. coli in buffer and carrot juice could be calculated at different pressure, temperature and time levels. The fitted interfaces of achieving/not achieving the target log reduction were consistent with the experimental data. Although the reliability of the predictions of the developed models could be questioned due to strain variation and different food matrix, a validation study has demonstrated that the developed models could be used to predict the target log reduction of these microorganisms at different pressure, temperature and time levels. This study has indicated that the probabilistic modeling for target log reductions can be useful tool for HHP inactivation of microorganisms, but further studies could be performed with several other factors such as pH and water activity of the food, concentration of certain additives as well as initial number of bacteria present in the food.
建立了一个基于逻辑回归的概率模型，用于预测高压处理对微生物的目标对数减少量。使用了发表的肉汤中沙门氏菌（Salmonella Typhimurium）4 对数和 5 对数减少以及缓冲液和胡萝卜汁中大肠杆菌（Escherichia coli）5 对数减少的灭活数据。可以在不同的压力、温度和时间水平下计算肉汤中沙门氏菌达到 4 对数或 5 对数减少以及缓冲液和胡萝卜汁中大肠杆菌达到 5 对数减少的概率。达到/未达到目标对数减少的拟合界面与实验数据一致。尽管由于菌株变化和不同的食品基质，开发模型的预测可靠性可能受到质疑，但验证研究表明，开发的模型可用于预测这些微生物在不同压力、温度和时间水平下的目标对数减少量。本研究表明，目标对数减少的概率建模可以成为高压处理微生物的有用工具，但可以针对食品的 pH 值和水分活度、某些添加剂的浓度以及食品中存在的初始细菌数量等其他因素进行进一步研究。
