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有限时间范围内年龄结构传染病系统基本再生数的θ格式近似。

A theta-scheme approximation of basic reproduction number for an age-structured epidemic system in a finite horizon.

作者信息

Guo Wen Juan, Ye Ming, Li Xi Ning, Meyer-Baese Anke, Zhang Qi Min

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Ningxia University, Yinchuan, 750021, P.R. China.

Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science and Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, United States.

出版信息

Math Biosci Eng. 2019 May 10;16(5):4107-4121. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019204.

Abstract

This paper focuses on numerical approximation of the basic reproduction number R, which is the threshold defined by the spectral radius of the next-generation operator in epidemiology. Generally speaking, R cannot be explicitly calculated for most age-structured epidemic systems. In this paper, for a deterministic age-structured epidemic system and its stochastic version, we discretize a linear operator produced by the infective population with a theta scheme in a finite horizon, which transforms the abstract problem into the problem of solving the positive dominant eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. This leads to a corresponding threshold R . Using the spectral approximation theory, we obtain that R → R as n → +∞. Some numerical simulations are provided to certify the theoretical results.

摘要

本文聚焦于基本再生数(R)的数值逼近,(R)是流行病学中由下一代算子的谱半径定义的阈值。一般而言,对于大多数年龄结构的流行病系统,(R)无法明确计算。在本文中,针对一个确定性年龄结构的流行病系统及其随机版本,我们在有限时间范围内用(\theta)格式离散由感染人群产生的线性算子,这将抽象问题转化为求解下一代矩阵的正主导特征值的问题。这就得到了相应的阈值(R)。利用谱逼近理论,我们得出当(n \to +\infty)时,(R \to R)。还提供了一些数值模拟来验证理论结果。

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