Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286 Huaizhong Road, Shijiazhuang 050021, Hebei, China; Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Nov 20;692:676-690. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.306. Epub 2019 Jul 22.
Eutrophication is a serious problem in Chinese seas. We explore possibilities to avoid coastal eutrophication without compromising food production in the North China Plain. We used the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrient to seAs (MARINA 1.0) for back-casting and scenario analysis. Avoiding coastal eutrophication by 2050 implies required reductions in river export of total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) by 50-90% for the Hai, Huai and Huang rivers. We analyzed the potential to meet these targets in 54 scenarios assuming improvements in manure recycling, fertilizer application, animal feed and wastewater treatment. Results indicate that combining manure recycling while reducing synthetic fertilizer use are effective options to reduce nutrient inputs to seas. Without such options, direct discharge of manure are important sources of water pollution. In the 7-25 scenarios with the low eutrophication potential, 40-100% of the N and P in untreated manure is recycled on land to replace synthetic fertilizers. Our results can support the formulation of effective environmental policies to avoid coastal eutrophication in China.
富营养化是中国海域面临的一个严重问题。我们探讨了在不影响华北平原粮食生产的情况下避免沿海富营养化的可能性。我们使用了模型来评估河流输入营养物质到海的情况（MARINA 1.0）进行回溯分析和情景分析。到 2050 年避免沿海富营养化意味着需要将海河、淮河和黄河的总氮（TN）和磷（TP）的河流出口减少 50-90%。我们分析了在假设改进粪便回收、肥料应用、动物饲料和废水处理的 54 种情况下，实现这些目标的潜力。结果表明，结合粪便回收，同时减少合成肥料的使用，是减少营养物质进入海洋的有效选择。如果没有这些选择，未经处理的粪便直接排放是水污染的重要来源。在低富营养化潜力的 7-25 种情况下，40-100%的未经处理的粪便中的氮和磷被回收利用，在陆地上替代合成肥料。我们的研究结果可以为中国制定有效的环境政策，避免沿海富营养化提供支持。
