Violence prediction methods: statistical and clinical strategies.

The paper suggests that the conventional wisdoms that we cannot and should not predict violence are wrong. We can predict violence, and we should predict violence. It is the unfortunate case, however, that we cannot do it very well, and this is true whether the predictions are made subjectively or statistically. Since the prediction of violence (and of other antisocial behaviors) is so pervasive in our justice and mental health systems, it is important that we attempt to do it better--that is, more efficiently and more effectively. In this paper we show that there is value to both clinical and statistical strategies toward the prediction problem, and suggest ways by which both may be improved. Attention to issues of fundamental measurement, to the base rate, to selection ratios, and to the methods of combining predictive information will be needed if the suggested improvements are to be realized. Finally, we propose that the statistician and the clinician need to pay attention to and learn from one another.