State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Ecological Effect and Risk Assessment of Chemicals, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China.
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Ecological Effect and Risk Assessment of Chemicals, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China; The Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization Ministry of Education, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330047, China.
Chemosphere. 2020 Feb;240:124848. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.124848. Epub 2019 Sep 16.
Establishment of numerical water quality criteria (WQC) has brought increasing interest in China. However, toxicity data to develop robust WQC values (number of toxicity data ≥8) of contaminants based solely on endemic and indigenous species are insufficient. In this study, interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models were developed using a combination of North American ICE models supplemented with China-specific species to resolve this problem. A total of 207 significant surrogate-predicted models (p < 0.05, F-test) were derived: 119, 66 and 22 models for vertebrates, invertebrates and plant surrogate species, respectively. Model cross-validation success rate (≥80%), mean square error (MSE, ≤ 0.54), R (≥0.78) and taxonomic distance (≤4, within the same class) were selected as guiding criteria to screen the resulted ICE models. The differences of 5th percentile hazard concentrations (HCs) for 6 chemicals (2,4-dichlorophenol, triclosan, tetrabromobisphenol A, nitrobenzene, perfluorooctane sulfonate and octabromodiphenyl ether) calculated from ICE-based and measured toxicity-based SSDs were within 3-fold among models. Although the number of derived ICE models was not comprehensive and continues to be improved, they can already be used in the development of WQC targeting protection of aquatic life and environmental risk assessments for chemicals lacking toxicity data.
建立数值水质标准 (WQC) 在中国引起了越来越多的关注。然而，仅基于特有和本地物种开发稳健的 WQC 值（毒性数据数量≥8）的毒性数据是不足够的。在这项研究中，采用北美 ICE 模型与中国特有物种相结合的方法，开发了种间相关估计 (ICE) 模型，以解决这一问题。共得出 207 个显著的替代预测模型（p<0.05，F 检验）：脊椎动物、无脊椎动物和植物替代物种分别有 119、66 和 22 个模型。模型交叉验证成功率（≥80%）、均方误差（MSE，≤0.54）、R（≥0.78）和分类距离（≤4，同一类别内）被选为筛选 ICE 模型的指导标准。从 ICE 模型和基于实测毒性 SSD 计算的 6 种化学物质（2,4-二氯苯酚、三氯生、四溴双酚 A、硝基苯、全氟辛烷磺酸和八溴二苯醚）的第 5 个百分位危险浓度 (HCs) 的差异在模型之间的倍数在 3 倍以内。尽管衍生的 ICE 模型数量并不全面，并且还在不断改进，但它们已经可以用于开发针对水生生物保护和缺乏毒性数据的化学物质的环境风险评估的 WQC。
