School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Engineering, Wuxi 214015, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Sep 19;16(18):3499. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16183499.
Ecological carrying capacity is an important factor of sustainable development for cities, and a critical part of achieving the coordinated development of the social economic and ecological environment for urban agglomerations. In order to evaluate the regional ecological carrying capacity and provide a basis for decision-making for regional sustainable development, this paper constructs an ecological carrying capacity model for the urban agglomeration from two dimensions: ecological carrying elastic force and ecological carrying pressure. The analytic hierarchy process is utilized to determine the weights of nine indices in these two dimensions. For the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, the comprehensive index of its ecological carrying capacity is investigated quantitatively, and the spatial distribution map of its comprehensive index measuring ecological carrying capacity is computed. The results show that Nanjing, Yangzhou, Taizhou, and Changzhou are in the stage of high load carrying; Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong, and Zhenjiang are in the stage of low load carrying. In addition, the environmental protection investment has the greatest impact on ecological carrying elastic force, followed by the proportion of the tertiary industry; wastewater discharge has the greatest impact on ecological carrying pressure. The level of ecological carrying capacity varies within the region. It is necessary to take measures to increase the ecological carrying elastic force and reduce the ecological carrying pressure according to the actual conditions in each region. Meanwhile, exchanges and cooperation between different regions should be strengthened to stimulate the coordinated and sustainable development.
生态承载力是城市可持续发展的重要因素，也是城市群实现社会经济与生态环境协调发展的关键部分。为了评估区域生态承载力，为区域可持续发展决策提供依据，本文从生态承载力弹性力和生态承载力压力两个维度构建了城市群生态承载力模型。利用层次分析法确定了这两个维度中九个指标的权重。以长江城市群为例，对其生态承载力综合指数进行了定量研究，并计算了其生态承载力综合指数的空间分布图谱。结果表明，南京、扬州、泰州和常州处于高承载阶段；苏州、无锡、南通和镇江处于低承载阶段。此外，环境保护投资对生态承载力弹性力的影响最大，其次是第三产业的比例；废水排放对生态承载力压力的影响最大。该区域的生态承载能力水平存在差异。有必要根据各地区的实际情况，采取措施提高生态承载力弹性力，降低生态承载力压力。同时，应加强不同地区之间的交流与合作，激发协调可持续发展。
