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1930 - 2010年奥地利阿尔卑斯山季节性积雪深度数据的均质化方法评估

Evaluation of homogenization methods for seasonal snow depth data in the Austrian Alps, 1930-2010.

作者信息

Marcolini Giorgia, Koch Roland, Chimani Barbara, Schöner Wolfgang, Bellin Alberto, Disse Markus, Chiogna Gabriele

机构信息

Department of Civil Environmental and Mechanical Engineering University of Trento Trento Italy.

Faculty of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering Technical University of Munich Munich Germany.

出版信息

Int J Climatol. 2019 Sep;39(11):4514-4530. doi: 10.1002/joc.6095. Epub 2019 Apr 30.

DOI:10.1002/joc.6095
PMID:31598034
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6774331/
Abstract

Despite the importance of snow in alpine regions, little attention has been given to the homogenization of snow depth time series. Snow depth time series are generally characterized by high spatial heterogeneity and low correlation among the time series, and the homogenization thereof is therefore challenging. In this work, we present a comparison between two homogenization methods for mean seasonal snow depth time series available for Austria: the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) and HOMOP. The results of the two methods are generally in good agreement for high elevation sites. For low elevation sites, HOMOP often identifies suspicious breakpoints (that cannot be confirmed by metadata and only occur in relation to seasons with particularly low mean snow depth), while the SNHT classifies the time series as homogeneous. We therefore suggest applying both methods to verify the reliability of the detected breakpoints. The number of computed anomalies is more sensitive to inhomogeneities than trend analysis performed with the Mann-Kendall test. Nevertheless, the homogenized dataset shows an increased number of stations with negative snow depth trends and characterized by consecutive negative anomalies starting from the late 1980s and early 1990s, which was in agreement with the observations available for several stations in the Alps. In summary, homogenization of snow depth data is possible, relevant and should be carried out prior to performing climatological analysis.

摘要

尽管降雪在高山地区具有重要意义,但对积雪深度时间序列的均一化处理却鲜有关注。积雪深度时间序列通常具有高度的空间异质性,且各时间序列之间的相关性较低,因此对其进行均一化处理具有挑战性。在这项工作中,我们对奥地利现有的两种平均季节性积雪深度时间序列均一化方法进行了比较:标准正态均一性检验(SNHT)和HOMOP。对于高海拔站点,这两种方法的结果总体上吻合良好。对于低海拔站点,HOMOP常常识别出可疑的断点(这些断点无法通过元数据确认,且仅出现在平均积雪深度特别低的季节),而SNHT则将时间序列归类为均一的。因此,我们建议同时应用这两种方法来验证检测到的断点的可靠性。与使用曼-肯德尔检验进行的趋势分析相比,计算出的异常数量对非均一性更为敏感。尽管如此,均一化后的数据集显示,自20世纪80年代末和90年代初以来,出现积雪深度呈负趋势且以连续负异常为特征的站点数量有所增加,这与阿尔卑斯山几个站点的观测结果一致。总之,积雪深度数据的均一化是可行的、有意义的,并且应该在进行气候分析之前进行。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/37f424ba444a/JOC-39-4514-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/826fe9f78ea1/JOC-39-4514-g001.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/d07750ce093c/JOC-39-4514-g005.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/37f424ba444a/JOC-39-4514-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/826fe9f78ea1/JOC-39-4514-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/436dc29a8132/JOC-39-4514-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/0757fe4517a6/JOC-39-4514-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/2c0e5f553a7d/JOC-39-4514-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/d07750ce093c/JOC-39-4514-g005.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/669e/6774331/37f424ba444a/JOC-39-4514-g007.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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