Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Nov 18;16(22):4568. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16224568.
Heatwave studies typically estimate heat-related mortality and morbidity risks at the city level; few have addressed the heterogeneous risks by socioeconomic status (SES) and location within a city. This study aimed to examine the impacts of heatwaves on mortality outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee, a Mid-South metropolitan area top-ranked in morbidity and poverty rates, and to investigate the effects of SES and urbanicity. Mortality data were retrieved from the death records in 2008-2017, and temperature data from the Applied Climate Information System. Heatwave days were defined based on four temperature metrics. Heatwave effects on daily total-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were evaluated using Poisson regression, accounting for temporal trends, sociodemographic factors, urbanicity, and air pollution. We found higher cardiovascular mortality risk (cumulative RR (relative risk) = 1.25, 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.01-1.55) in heatwave days defined as those with maximum daily temperature >95th percentile for more than two consecutive days. The effects of heatwaves on mortality did not differ by SES, race, or urbanicity. The findings of this study provided evidence to support future heatwave planning and studies of heatwave and health impacts at a coarser geographic resolution.
热浪研究通常在城市层面估计与热相关的死亡和发病风险；很少有研究针对社会经济地位 (SES) 和城市内部位置的异质性风险进行研究。本研究旨在研究田纳西州孟菲斯市热浪对死亡率的影响，该城市是中南部大都市地区发病率和贫困率最高的地区，并调查 SES 和城市化的影响。死亡率数据来自 2008-2017 年的死亡记录，温度数据来自应用气候信息系统。根据四个温度指标定义热浪日。使用泊松回归评估热浪对每日全因、心血管和呼吸道死亡率的影响，同时考虑时间趋势、社会人口因素、城市化和空气污染。我们发现，在热浪日（定义为连续两天以上最高日温度超过第 95 百分位数的日子），心血管死亡率风险更高（累积 RR（相对风险）= 1.25，95%CI（置信区间）：1.01-1.55）。热浪对死亡率的影响不因 SES、种族或城市化程度而有所不同。本研究的结果为未来热浪规划和更粗糙地理分辨率下的热浪和健康影响研究提供了证据支持。
