Department of International Health and Medical Anthropology, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Zoology, University of Basel, 4051, Basel, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2019 Nov 22;9(1):17408. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-53841-8.
Multiple sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have threatened human health for centuries. Most STIs spread not only through sexual (horizontal) transmission but also through mother-to-child (vertical) transmission. In a previous work (Ito et al. 2019), we studied a simple model including heterosexual and mother-to-child transmission and proposed a formulation of the basic reproduction number over generations. In the present study, we improved the model to take into account some factors neglected in the previous work: adult mortality from infection, infant mortality caused by mother-to-child transmission, infertility or stillbirth caused by infection, and recovery with treatment. We showed that the addition of these factors has no essential effect on the theoretical formulation. To study the characteristics of the epidemic threshold, we derived analytical formulas for three type-reproduction numbers for adult men, adult women and juveniles. Our result indicates that if an efficient vaccine exists for a prevalent STI, vaccination of females is more effective for containment of the STI than vaccination of males, because the type-reproduction number for adult men is larger than that for adult women when they are larger than one.
多种性传播感染(STIs)几个世纪以来一直威胁着人类健康。大多数性传播感染不仅通过性(水平)传播,而且还通过母婴(垂直)传播。在之前的工作中(Ito 等人,2019 年),我们研究了一个包含异性传播和母婴传播的简单模型,并提出了一个世代基本繁殖数的公式。在本研究中,我们改进了模型,以考虑到之前工作中忽略的一些因素:感染导致的成年人死亡率、母婴传播导致的婴儿死亡率、感染导致的不孕或死产,以及治疗后的康复。我们表明,添加这些因素对理论公式没有本质影响。为了研究流行阈值的特征,我们为成年男性、成年女性和青少年的三种类型繁殖数推导出了分析公式。我们的结果表明,如果存在针对流行 STI 的有效疫苗,那么对女性进行疫苗接种对于控制 STI 比对男性进行疫苗接种更有效,因为当男性的类型繁殖数大于 1 时,它大于成年女性的类型繁殖数。