Zhao Ru-Nan, He Qian-Qian, Chu Xiao-Jie, Lu Zhi-Qiang, Zhu Zun-Ling
College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.
Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2019 Nov;30(11):3833-3843. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201911.020.
Climate change seriously affects the geographical distribution of plants. Regional diffe-rences in plant response to climate change will provide important guidance for species introduction and conservation. Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model, we used 176 geographic information of Carpinus cordata and 13 climatic variables to reconstruct its current and future niche. The results showed that the model had a high credibility in simulating contemporary potential distribution areas. The AUC values of the test set and the training set of the model were 0.973 and 0.957, respectively. The main core suitable areas were concentrated in Qinling, Changbai Mountain and their adjacent areas, with other sporadic "island" distribution. C. cordata is not distributed in Guizhou, Jiangxi, Yunnan and Fujian, but the model predicted some suitable distribution areas in those provinces. With climate warming in the future, ecologically suitable areas of C. cordata would increase significantly, mainly as "shrinking to high altitude areas", "expanding northward", and "expanding eastward". However, core suitable areas would be slightly reduced, which would be manifested as "shrinking southward", "moderate stability", and "expanding northward". The response of C. cordata distribution to climate warming was obviously regional. Eastern Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places would become ecologically suitable areas for C. cordata because of their unique geographical location and climatic environment. The lower latitudes of the south, the original low-altitude areas might no longer be suitable for survival. The central Qinling region was a transition region from north to south, with strong buffer capacity, and climate warming had little effect on its distribution area. The Changbai Mountain and its adjacent areas at higher latitudes were more suitable for C. cordata.
气候变化严重影响植物的地理分布。植物对气候变化的区域差异将为物种引进和保护提供重要指导。基于ArcGIS和MaxEnt模型，我们利用176个千金榆地理信息和13个气候变量重建了其当前和未来生态位。结果表明，该模型在模拟当代潜在分布区方面具有较高可信度。模型测试集和训练集的AUC值分别为0.973和0.957。主要核心适宜区集中在秦岭、长白山及其邻近地区，呈零星“岛屿”状分布。千金榆在贵州、江西、云南和福建没有分布，但模型预测在这些省份有一些适宜分布区。未来随着气候变暖，千金榆的生态适宜区将显著增加，主要表现为“向高海拔地区收缩”、“向北扩展”和“向东扩展”。然而，核心适宜区将略有减少，表现为“向南收缩”、“适度稳定”和“向北扩展”。千金榆分布对气候变暖的响应具有明显的区域性。江苏东部、安徽等地因其独特的地理位置和气候环境将成为千金榆的生态适宜区。南方较低纬度地区、原低海拔地区可能不再适宜生存。秦岭中部地区是南北过渡区，缓冲能力强，气候变暖对其分布区影响较小。较高纬度的长白山及其邻近地区更适宜千金榆生长。
