Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, UK.
Middlesex University, London, UK.
Child Abuse Negl. 2020 Mar;101:104242. doi: 10.1016/j.chiabu.2019.104242. Epub 2019 Dec 20.
Public knowledge of child stranger rape is shaped largely by media portrayals of a small number of cases, often marked by sensational trials, which may result in juror misconceptions of this offense. It is important to understand the factors that may influence jury verdicts in order to maximize the chance of guilty defendants being convicted.
The aim is to explore the factors that predict juries' decisions to convict or acquit in child stranger rape cases.
The study utilizes a police database of recorded child stranger rape cases from a UK urban force from 2001-2015. Seventy cases that were tried by jury were analyzed. We investigated the extent to which 19 child-, accused- and offense-related factors predict jury verdicts.
A four stage analytic process was employed: (a) Kendall's tau-b measured inter-correlations among the factors; (b) Chi-Square and Welch t-tests measured associations between factors and verdicts; (c) binary logistic regression measured the power of factors in predicting verdicts; and (d) Stein's formula was used to cross-validate the model.
Verdicts were predicted by two offense-related factors. A weapon increased the odds of conviction by 412%. An outdoor location increased the odds by 360%.
The findings have potential implications for prosecution case building and courtroom policy. Prosecutors could gather as much information as possible from victims about the factors found to be of importance to juries. Judges could challenge incorrect beliefs and stereotypes by instructing juries.
公众对儿童陌生人强奸的认识在很大程度上受到媒体对少数案件的描述的影响，这些案件通常以耸人听闻的审判为标志，这可能导致陪审员对这种犯罪产生误解。了解可能影响陪审团裁决的因素对于最大限度地提高有罪被告被定罪的机会非常重要。
旨在探讨预测陪审团在儿童陌生人强奸案件中定罪或无罪释放决定的因素。
本研究利用了英国一个城市警察数据库中记录的 2001-2015 年发生的儿童陌生人强奸案件。分析了 70 起由陪审团审判的案件。我们调查了 19 个儿童、被告和犯罪相关因素在多大程度上预测了陪审团的裁决。
采用四阶段分析过程：（a）肯德尔 tau-b 测量因素之间的相互关联；（b）卡方和 Welch t 检验测量因素与裁决之间的关联；（c）二项逻辑回归测量因素在预测裁决中的作用；（d）Stein 公式用于交叉验证模型。
判决由两个与犯罪有关的因素预测。携带武器将定罪的几率增加了 412%。户外地点将几率增加了 360%。
这些发现可能对检方的案件构建和法庭政策有潜在影响。检察官可以从受害者那里收集尽可能多的与陪审团认为重要的因素有关的信息。法官可以通过指示陪审团来挑战不正确的信念和刻板印象。
