Chronic hepatitis: disease factors at diagnosis predictive of mortality.

PURPOSE

Chronic hepatitis is known to be a disease with substantial mortality. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic factors in a large group of patients with chronic hepatitis. We also wanted to determine whether the aminopyrine breath test (ABT) is of additional prognostic value in evaluation of this disease.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied 94 patients who had had a biopsy-proven diagnosis and an ABT between June 1, 1977, and June 30, 1981. Clinical features and biochemical test results at the time of diagnosis were retrieved from medical records, and histologic severity was assessed by reviewing all liver biopsy specimens under code. Survival was determined at a mean of 60 months. Data were studied with a Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of mortality and to control for confounding variables.

RESULTS

Cumulative mortality as of December 31, 1985, was 5 percent in chronic persistent hepatitis, 6 percent in chronic active hepatitis, 29 percent in chronic active hepatitis with bridging necrosis, and 53 percent in chronic active hepatitis with cirrhosis. Histologic severity was a predictor of death (p less than 0.005). Other predictors of mortality were disease caused by hepatitis B virus (p less than 0.005), a high alkaline phosphatase level (p less than 0.025), a low alanine aminotransaminase level (p less than 0.001), and a depressed ABT result (p less than 0.005).

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that patients with chronic hepatitis with one or more of these risk factors have an increased mortality and should be followed closely for liver failure, which may necessitate medical therapy or surgical intervention.