Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Steadily Persists over Time Despite Long-Term Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND

Long-term antiviral therapy (AVT) for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We assessed the temporal trends in the incidence of HCC over time during long-term AVT among Asian patients with CHB.

METHODS

Patients with CHB receiving entecavir/tenofovir (ETV/TDF) as a first-line antiviral were recruited from four academic hospitals in the Republic of Korea. We compared the incidence of HCC during and after the first 5 years of ETV/TDF treatment.

RESULTS

Among 3,156 patients, the median age was 49.6 years and males predominated (62.4%). During the follow-up, 9.0% developed HCC. The annual incidence of HCC per 100 person-years during the first 5 years ( = 1,671) and after the first 5 years ( = 1,485) was statistically similar (1.93% vs. 2.27%, = 0.347). When the study population was stratified according to HCC prediction model, that is, modified PAGE-B score, the annual incidence of HCC was 0.11% versus 0.39% in the low-risk group (<8 points), 1.26% versus 1.82% in the intermediate-risk group (9-12 points), and 4.63% versus 5.24% in the high-risk group (≥13 points; all > 0.05). A Poisson regression analysis indicated that the duration of AVT did not significantly affect the overall trend of the incidence of HCC (adjusted annual incidence rate ratio = 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.11; = 0.232).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite long-term AVT, the risk of HCC steadily persists over time among patients with CHB in the Republic of Korea, in whom HBV genotype C2 predominates.

IMPACT

Careful HCC surveillance is still essential.