Goda Katsuichiro, Petrone Crescenzo, De Risi Raffaele, Rossetto Tiziana
1Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's School of Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
2Department of Civil, Environmental & Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. 2017;31(9):2337-2355. doi: 10.1007/s00477-016-1352-1. Epub 2016 Nov 12.
This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake-tsunami hazards.
本研究使用随机生成的地震源模型对强震和海啸进行耦合模拟。研究聚焦于2011年日本东北地震。利用多事件随机有限断层方法模拟地面运动时程，该方法考虑了强震发生区域的多个局部破裂过程。对于海啸模拟，通过评估带有爬高的非线性浅水方程生成多个波浪剖面实现。本研究的主要目标是：（i）研究强震和海啸危险参数对凹凸体和强震发生区域的敏感性，以及（ii）量化由于共同地震源导致的强震和海啸预测的空间变异性和相关性。这些研究为理解级联地震灾害的时空影响提供了有价值的见解。重要的是，该研究还开发了一个集成的强震和海啸模拟器，能够捕捉地震源的不确定性。这样一种先进的数值工具对于评估遭受级联地震-海啸灾害的建筑物和基础设施的性能是必要的。
