Department of Psychology, Adelphi University.
Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Francisco.
Law Hum Behav. 2020 Jun;44(3):238-249. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000363. Epub 2020 Feb 6.
This study presents a prospective evaluation of the contribution of criminogenic factors, psychiatric symptomatology, and neighborhood-level factors to risk for self-reported gun violence by adolescents with criminal justice involvement.
We hypothesized that elevated psychiatric symptom clusters would be associated with increased risk for gun violence after accounting for criminogenic factors and that neighborhood contextual variables would contribute independently to gun violence risk controlling for criminogenic and psychiatric factors.
Data were drawn from the Pathways to Desistance study (Mulvey et al., 2004), a previously collected, longitudinal evaluation of 1,354 adolescents with felony or weapons-based misdemeanor convictions. Participants were located in Arizona and Pennsylvania and aged 14-18 at baseline. The majority identified as male (86.4%) and Black (41.4%) or Hispanic (33.5%). Participants completed interviews at baseline and follow-up over 7 years. This study drew indicators of criminogenic factors, psychiatric factors, ratings of neighborhood context, and self-reported offending. We used discrete time survival analysis to prospectively evaluate the contribution of independent variables to time to gun violence.
The presence of self-reported threat control override symptoms represented a 56% increase in risk controlling for demographic and criminogenic factors, odds ratio = 1.56, 95% confidence interval [1.11, 2.18]. Ratings of higher neighborhood gun accessibility represented almost 2.5 times increased risk for self-reported gun violence controlling for demographic, criminogenic, and psychiatric factors, odds ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval [1.60, 3.85].
Results suggest that consideration of both environmental and individual-level factors hold importance for management of community risk and public safety for adolescents with criminal justice involvement. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).
本研究前瞻性地评估了犯罪因素、精神症状和邻里环境因素对具有刑事司法背景的青少年自我报告枪支暴力风险的贡献。
我们假设，在考虑犯罪因素后，精神症状群的升高与枪支暴力风险的增加相关，并且在控制犯罪和精神因素后，邻里环境变量将独立贡献于枪支暴力风险。
数据来自于《停止之路研究》（Mulvey 等人，2004），这是一项先前收集的、对 1354 名有重罪或基于武器的轻罪定罪的青少年进行的纵向评估。参与者来自亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州，基线时年龄在 14-18 岁之间。大多数参与者为男性（86.4%）和黑人（41.4%）或西班牙裔（33.5%）。参与者在 7 年的时间里完成了基线和随访的访谈。本研究提取了犯罪因素、精神因素、邻里环境评定和自我报告犯罪的指标。我们使用离散时间生存分析前瞻性地评估了独立变量对枪支暴力时间的贡献。
自我报告的威胁控制障碍症状的存在，在控制人口统计学和犯罪因素后，风险增加了 56%，优势比=1.56，95%置信区间[1.11, 2.18]。邻里枪支可及性的评分较高，在控制人口统计学、犯罪和精神因素后，自我报告枪支暴力的风险增加了近 2.5 倍，优势比=2.48，95%置信区间[1.60, 3.85]。
结果表明，对于具有刑事司法背景的青少年，考虑环境和个体水平的因素对于管理社区风险和公共安全具有重要意义。
