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在预测模型中纳入分子描述符可提高农药土壤-空气分配的估算值。

Inclusion of molecular descriptors in predictive models improves pesticide soil-air partitioning estimates.

机构信息

Department of Soil Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 5A8, Canada.

Department of Agricultural Resources & Environments, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.

出版信息

Chemosphere. 2020 Jun;248:126031. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.126031. Epub 2020 Jan 29.

DOI:10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.126031
PMID:32032877
Abstract

The soil-air exchange of pesticides is one potential fate and exposure pathways, and this process is generally thought to be governed by soil properties and environmental conditions. The experimental determination of soil-air partitioning coefficient (Ksa) is laborious and costly and typically, Ksa's are predicted from a semiempirical or a simple linear regression approach with soil and environmental variables. Here we developed a model that combined linear regression of soil, environmental and molecular parameters with the quantitative structural-property relationship (QSPR) to predict Ksa for pesticides. The values of theoretical descriptors of pesticides were calculated and the best descriptors selected using the Boruta Algorithm. Seventy-six experimental logKsa values for 17 pesticides were used in model development. Multiple linear regression (MLR) with a soil (organic carbon fraction), physicochemical (octanol-air partitioning coefficient), environmental (temperature and humidity) and molecular descriptor (Gmin, a 2D E-state molecular parameter), called as MLR-QSPR combined model exhibited better predictability (adj. r = 0.95) of logKsa compared to MLR (adj. r = 0.87) or QSPR (adj. r = 0.82) itself. MLR-QSPR also showed the best performance in five-fold cross-validation (adj. r = 0.94) and test set verification (adj. r = 0.96). The developed model was validated and characterized by the applicability domain. Results showed that the proposed MLR-QSPR approach is highly predictive and statistically robust with >95% of predictions within ±0.5 log unit of the measured Ksa. Therefore, this approach can be used in estimating the soil-air partitioning of pesticides to better predict it's fate and transport in environments.

摘要

农药的土壤-空气交换是一种潜在的归宿和暴露途径,一般认为这个过程受土壤性质和环境条件的控制。实验测定土壤-空气分配系数(Ksa)既费力又昂贵,通常可以通过半经验或简单的线性回归方法,利用土壤和环境变量来预测 Ksa。在这里,我们开发了一种模型,该模型将土壤、环境和分子参数的线性回归与定量结构-性质关系(QSPR)相结合,以预测农药的 Ksa。我们计算了农药的理论描述符的值,并使用 Boruta 算法选择了最佳描述符。该模型的开发使用了 76 个实验 logKsa 值,涉及 17 种农药。与土壤(有机碳部分)、物理化学(辛醇-空气分配系数)、环境(温度和湿度)和分子描述符(Gmin,二维 E 态分子参数)的多元线性回归(MLR)与 QSPR 本身相比,称为 MLR-QSPR 组合模型,对 logKsa 具有更好的预测能力(adj. r = 0.95)。MLR-QSPR 在五重交叉验证(adj. r = 0.94)和测试集验证(adj. r = 0.96)中也表现出最佳性能。该模型通过适用性域进行了验证和特征描述。结果表明,所提出的 MLR-QSPR 方法具有高度的预测性和统计学稳健性,超过 95%的预测值在测量 Ksa 的±0.5 对数单位范围内。因此,该方法可用于估计农药的土壤-空气分配,以更好地预测其在环境中的归宿和迁移。

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