Tongue Sue C, Eze Jude I, Correia-Gomes Carla, Brülisauer Franz, Gunn George J
Epidemiology Research Unit, Department of Veterinary and Animal Science, Northern Faculty, Scotland's Rural College, Inverness, United Kingdom.
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), JCMB, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Front Vet Sci. 2020 Jan 24;6:487. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2019.00487. eCollection 2019.
There are calls from policy-makers and industry to use existing data sources to contribute to livestock surveillance systems, especially for syndromic surveillance. However, the practical implications of attempting to use such data sources are challenging; development often requires incremental steps in an iterative cycle. In this study the utility of business operational data from a voluntary fallen stock collection service was investigated, to determine if they could be used as a proxy for the mortality experienced by the British sheep population. Retrospectively, Scottish ovine fallen stock collection data (2011-2014) were transformed into meaningful units for analysis, temporal and spatial patterns were described, time-series methods and a temporal aberration detection algorithm applied. Distinct annual and spatial trends plus seasonal patterns were observed in the three age groups investigated. The algorithm produced an alarm at the point of an historic known departure from normal (April 2013) for two age groups, across Scotland as a whole and in specific postcode areas. The analysis was then extended. Initially, to determine if similar methods could be applied to ovine fallen stock collections from England and Wales for the same time period. Additionally, Scottish contemporaneous laboratory diagnostic submission data were analyzed to see if they could provide further insight for interpretation of statistical alarms. Collaboration was required between the primary data holders, those with industry sector knowledge, plus veterinary, epidemiological and statistical expertise, in order to turn data and analytical outcomes into potentially useful information. A number of limitations were identified and recommendations were made as to how some could be addressed in order to facilitate use of these data as surveillance "intelligence." e.g., improvements to data collection and provision. A recent update of the fallen stock collections data has enabled a longer temporal period to be analyzed, with evidence of changes made in line with the recommendations. Further development will be required before a functional system can be implemented. However, there is potential for use of these data as: a proxy measure for mortality in the sheep population; complementary components in a future surveillance system, and to inform the design of additional surveillance system components.
政策制定者和行业呼吁利用现有数据源为牲畜监测系统做出贡献，特别是用于症状监测。然而，尝试使用此类数据源的实际影响具有挑战性；开发通常需要在迭代周期中逐步推进。在本研究中，对来自自愿性死亡牲畜收集服务的商业运营数据的效用进行了调查，以确定它们是否可以用作英国绵羊种群死亡率的替代指标。回顾性地，将苏格兰绵羊死亡牲畜收集数据（2011 - 2014年）转换为有意义的分析单位，描述了时间和空间模式，应用了时间序列方法和时间异常检测算法。在所调查的三个年龄组中观察到了明显的年度和空间趋势以及季节性模式。该算法在历史上已知偏离正常水平的时间点（2013年4月）对两个年龄组发出了警报，涵盖整个苏格兰以及特定的邮政编码区域。然后扩展了分析。首先，确定是否可以将类似方法应用于同一时期英格兰和威尔士的绵羊死亡牲畜收集数据。此外，对苏格兰同期的实验室诊断提交数据进行了分析，以查看它们是否能为统计警报的解释提供进一步的见解。主要数据持有者、具有行业部门知识的人员以及兽医、流行病学和统计专业知识的人员之间需要合作，以便将数据和分析结果转化为潜在有用的信息。确定了一些局限性，并就如何解决其中一些问题提出了建议，以便于将这些数据用作监测“情报”。例如，改进数据收集和提供。最近对死亡牲畜收集数据的更新使得能够分析更长的时间段，并且有证据表明已根据建议进行了更改。在实施功能系统之前还需要进一步开发。然而，这些数据有潜力用作：绵羊种群死亡率的替代指标；未来监测系统中的补充组件，并为额外监测系统组件的设计提供信息。
