Schroeer Katharina, Tye Mari R
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC) University of Graz Graz Austria.
FWF-DK Climate Change University of Graz Graz Austria.
J Flood Risk Manag. 2019 Dec;12(4):e12491. doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12491. Epub 2018 Oct 2.
Convective precipitation is intensifying in many regions, but potential implications of shifts in precipitation types on impacts have not been quantified. Furthermore, risk assessments often focus on rare extremes, but also more frequent hydro-meteorological events burden private and public budgets. Here synoptic, hydrological, meteorological, and socio-economic data are merged to analyse 25 years of damage claims in 480 Austrian municipalities. Exceedance probabilities of discharge and precipitation associated with damage reports are calculated and compared for convective and stratiform weather patterns. During April to November, 60% of claims are reported under convective conditions. Irrespective of the weather type, most of the accumulated cost links to minor hazard levels, not only indicating that frequent events are a highly relevant expense factor, but also pointing to deficiencies in observational data. High uncertainty in damage costs attributable to extreme events demonstrates the questionable reliability of calculating low-frequency event return levels. Significant differences exist among weather types. Stratiform weather types are up to 10 times more often associated with damaging extreme discharge or precipitation, while convective weather shows the highest nuisance level contributions. The results show that changes in convective precipitation are pertinent to risk management as convective weather types have contributed significantly to damage in the past.
对流性降水在许多地区正在加剧,但降水类型变化对影响的潜在影响尚未得到量化。此外,风险评估通常侧重于罕见的极端事件,但更频繁的水文气象事件也给私人和公共预算带来负担。在此,将天气、水文、气象和社会经济数据合并,以分析奥地利480个市镇25年的损失索赔情况。计算并比较了与损失报告相关的对流和层状天气模式下的流量和降水超标概率。在4月至11月期间,60%的索赔报告是在对流条件下提出的。无论天气类型如何,大部分累计成本都与轻微危害水平相关,这不仅表明频繁事件是一个高度相关的费用因素,也指出了观测数据的不足。极端事件造成的损失成本存在高度不确定性,这表明计算低频事件重现水平的可靠性存疑。不同天气类型之间存在显著差异。层状天气类型与破坏性极端流量或降水的关联频率高达10倍,而对流天气则对滋扰水平的贡献最大。结果表明,对流性降水的变化与风险管理相关,因为对流天气类型在过去对损失有重大影响。