Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2020 May;64(5):841-851. doi: 10.1007/s00484-020-01873-5. Epub 2020 Feb 13.
Although global warming is an indisputable fact, there is still uncertainty about how climate change will occur at regional levels. Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world. To best manage this country's limited water resources, socio-economic development and environmental protection, a solid understanding of regional climate change impacts is needed. In this study, tree-ring width and δC chronologies were established based on 99 tree-ring samples of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) collected in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Climate response analysis between the tree-ring chronologies and climate data indicates that summer mean temperature is the strongest climate signal recorded by tree-ring δC. We reconstructed temperature change in southern Kazakhstan since 1850 C.E. using the tree-ring δC chronology. The results show that the temperatures in southern Kazakhstan have risen at a rate of about 0.27 °C per decade over the past 166 years. However, the rate has increased by as much as 0.44 °C per decade over the past 30 years. Analyses of temperature and precipitation data show that the climate has alternated between warm-dry and cold-humid periods over the past 166 years. The extreme droughts of 1879, 1917 and 1945 were caused by the combination of continuously high temperatures and reduced precipitation.
虽然全球变暖是一个不容置疑的事实，但在区域层面上气候变化将如何发生仍存在不确定性。哈萨克斯坦是世界上最大的内陆国家。为了更好地管理这个国家有限的水资源、社会经济发展和环境保护，需要对区域气候变化的影响有一个坚实的了解。在这项研究中，基于在哈萨克斯坦阿拉木图采集的 99 个云杉（Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.）树轮样本，建立了树木年轮宽度和 δC 年表。树木年轮年表与气候数据之间的气候响应分析表明，夏季平均温度是树木年轮 δC 记录的最强气候信号。我们利用树木年轮 δC 年表重建了自 1850 年以来哈萨克斯坦南部的温度变化。结果表明，在过去的 166 年里，哈萨克斯坦南部的温度以每十年约 0.27°C 的速度上升。然而，在过去的 30 年里，这一速度增加了约 0.44°C/十年。对温度和降水数据的分析表明，在过去的 166 年里，气候在暖干和冷湿期之间交替出现。1879 年、1917 年和 1945 年的极端干旱是由持续高温和降水减少共同造成的。
