Tinetti M E, Speechley M, Ginter S F
Department of Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Conn. 06510-8056.
N Engl J Med. 1988 Dec 29;319(26):1701-7. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198812293192604.
To study risk factors for falling, we conducted a one-year prospective investigation, using a sample of 336 persons at least 75 years of age who were living in the community. All subjects underwent detailed clinical evaluation, including standardized measures of mental status, strength, reflexes, balance, and gait; in addition, we inspected their homes for environmental hazards. Falls and their circumstances were identified during bimonthly telephone calls. During one year of follow-up, 108 subjects (32 percent) fell at least once; 24 percent of those who fell had serious injuries and 6 percent had fractures. Predisposing factors for falls were identified in linear-logistic models. The adjusted odds ratio for sedative use was 28.3; for cognitive impairment, 5.0; for disability of the lower extremities, 3.8; for palmomental reflex, 3.0; for abnormalities of balance and gait, 1.9; and for foot problems, 1.8; the lower bounds of the 95 percent confidence intervals were 1 or more for all variables. The risk of falling increased linearly with the number of risk factors, from 8 percent with none to 78 percent with four or more risk factors (P less than 0.0001). About 10 percent of the falls occurred during acute illness, 5 percent during hazardous activity, and 44 percent in the presence of environmental hazards. We conclude that falls among older persons living in the community are common and that a simple clinical assessment can identify the elderly persons who are at the greatest risk of falling.
为研究跌倒的危险因素,我们进行了一项为期一年的前瞻性调查,以336名至少75岁的社区居民为样本。所有受试者均接受了详细的临床评估,包括精神状态、力量、反射、平衡和步态的标准化测量;此外,我们还检查了他们家中的环境危险因素。通过每两个月一次的电话随访确定跌倒及其发生情况。在一年的随访期间,108名受试者(32%)至少跌倒过一次;跌倒者中有24%受了重伤,6%发生了骨折。在线性逻辑模型中确定了跌倒的诱发因素。使用镇静剂的校正比值比为28.3;认知障碍为5.0;下肢残疾为3.8;掌颏反射为3.0;平衡和步态异常为1.9;足部问题为1.8;所有变量的95%置信区间下限均为1或更高。跌倒风险随危险因素数量呈线性增加,从无危险因素时的8%增加到有四个或更多危险因素时的78%(P<0.0001)。约10%的跌倒发生在急性疾病期间,5%发生在危险活动期间,44%发生在存在环境危险因素的情况下。我们得出结论,社区中老年人跌倒很常见,简单的临床评估可以识别出跌倒风险最高的老年人。