Milner P C
Department of Community Medicine, University of Sheffield Medical School, U.K.
Stat Med. 1988 Oct;7(10):1061-72. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780071007.
The annual new, return and total attendances at Accident and Emergency (A and E) Departments for Trent district and the whole of the Trent region are forecast for the years 1986 to 1994 by using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model applied to the SH3 A and E returns for 1974 to 1985. The 1986 forecasts of annual new, return and total attendances in Trent districts are compared with the actual attendances observed; the new attendance forecasts were found accurate, the return attendance forecasts less so. The latter may reflect inability to predict changing policies on return attendances of individual A and E departments. The 1994 ARIMA forecasts of annual A and E new attendances for Trent districts are compared with the 1984 based regional guidelines for 1994 and the projections for individual districts. Both the ARIMA models and the health districts' own projections produce a different forecast to the 1994 regional guideline which seems to overestimate. The forecasting methodology used has other applications in health care planning.
利用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）时间序列模型，将其应用于1974年至1985年的SH3急症室就诊数据，对特伦特地区及整个特伦特区域1986年至1994年急症室的年度新增就诊人数、复诊人数和总就诊人数进行了预测。将特伦特地区1986年的年度新增就诊人数、复诊人数和总就诊人数预测值与实际观察到的就诊人数进行了比较；发现新增就诊人数预测准确，而复诊人数预测则不太准确。后者可能反映出无法预测各个急症室复诊政策的变化。将特伦特地区1994年急症室年度新增就诊人数的ARIMA预测值与基于1984年的1994年区域指导方针以及各地区的预测值进行了比较。ARIMA模型和各健康区自己的预测结果与1994年区域指导方针的预测结果都不同，后者似乎高估了数据。所使用的预测方法在医疗保健规划中还有其他应用。
