Centre for Geographical Studies of the Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa (CEG-IGOT-ULisboa), Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, Cidade Universitária, 1600-276, Lisboa, Portugal.
Centre for Social Studies, Earth Sciences Department of the Sciences and Technology Faculty, Universidade de Coimbra (CES/DCT-FCT-UCoimbra), Colégio S. Jerónimo, Largo D. Dinis, 3000-995, Coimbra, Portugal.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Apr 15;260:110127. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110127. Epub 2020 Jan 27.
During the period 1998-2017, floods were responsible for 11% of the loss of life and 23% of the economic loss caused by climate-related and geophysical-related disasters worldwide. An integrated and effective definition of flood risk management strategies therefore still requires synthesized and comprehensive knowledge about the driving forces of flood risk. In this study, 278 Portuguese municipalities are analyzed and classified according to flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. After evaluating the three components that describe risk, an index of the flood risk is calculated and a cluster analysis is further performed to understand the role of the risk drivers (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) in each municipality. The proposed approach therefore provides flood risk indexes on a municipal basis, which are built upon different sources of both cell-by-cell data and an aggregation of municipal-level data that has been statistically validated. Municipalities both in the NW part of the country and along the valleys of major rivers demonstrate a significant superimposition of high levels of exposure and hazard, while vulnerability presents a disperse pattern throughout the country. The results obtained using this approach should contribute to the diversification of flood risk management strategies. This is still lacking in the majority of the national-level flood risk governance processes, namely those strategies that focus on the contingency of daily activities and those aiming at a long-term reduction of the exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components that shape flood disasters.
在 1998 年至 2017 年期间，洪水造成了全球气候相关和地球物理相关灾害造成的 11%的生命损失和 23%的经济损失。因此，综合有效的洪水风险管理策略的定义仍然需要关于洪水风险驱动因素的综合和全面的知识。在这项研究中，根据洪水灾害、暴露和脆弱性，对 278 个葡萄牙市镇进行了分析和分类。在评估了描述风险的三个组成部分后，计算了洪水风险指数，并进一步进行了聚类分析，以了解风险驱动因素（危险、暴露和脆弱性）在每个市镇中的作用。因此，所提出的方法提供了基于市镇的洪水风险指数，这些指数是基于不同来源的单元格数据和市镇级数据的汇总构建的，这些数据已经过统计验证。该国西北部和主要河流流域的市镇都表现出暴露和危险程度高的显著叠加，而脆弱性则在全国范围内呈现分散模式。该方法得到的结果应该有助于多样化洪水风险管理策略。这在大多数国家级洪水风险管理过程中仍然缺乏，这些策略主要集中在日常活动的应急措施上，以及旨在长期减少塑造洪水灾害的暴露、脆弱性和危险因素的策略。
