Civil Engineering Department, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, Volos 38334, Greece.
Civil Engineering Department, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, Volos 38334, Greece.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 May 15;717:137264. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137264. Epub 2020 Feb 12.
Achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals depends on using resources efficiently, avoiding fragmentation in decision-making, recognising the trade-offs and synergies across sectors and adopting an integrated Nexus thinking among policymakers. Nexus Informatics develops the science of recognising and quantifying nexus interlinkages. Nexus-coherent solutions enhance the effect of policymaking in achieving adequate governance, leading to successful strategic vision and efficient resource management. In this article, we present the structure of a System Dynamics Model-the Nexus_SDM-that maps sector-specific data from major databases (e.g., EUROSTAT) and scenario models (e.g., E3ME-FTT OSeMOSYS and SWIM) for the national case study of Greece. Disaggregation algorithms are employed on annual national-scale data, turning them into detailed spatial and temporal datasets, by converting them to monthly values spread among all 14 River Basin Districts (RBDs). The Nexus_SDM calculates Nexus Interlinkage Factors and quantifies interlinkages among Water, Energy, Food, Built Environment, Natural Land and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It simulates the nexus in the national case study of Greece as a holistic multi-sectoral system and provides insights into the vulnerability of resources to future socio-economic scenarios. It calculates the link between crop type/area, irrigation water and agricultural value, revealing which crops have the highest agricultural value with the least water and crop area. It demonstrates that fossil fuel power generation and use of oil for transportation are responsible for the most GHG emissions in most RBDs and presents projections for years 2030 and 2050. The analysis showcases that to move from a general nexus thinking to an operational nexus concept, it is important to focus on data availability and scale. Advanced Sankey and Chord diagrams are introduced to show distribution of resource use among RBDs and an innovative visualisation tool is developed, the Nexus Directional Chord plot, which reveals Nexus hotspots and strong interlinkages among sectors, facilitating stakeholder awareness.
实现联合国可持续发展目标取决于高效利用资源、避免决策碎片化、认识到跨部门的权衡与协同，并在政策制定者中采用综合的关联思维。关联信息学发展了识别和量化关联联系的科学。关联一致的解决方案增强了政策制定在实现充分治理方面的效果，从而促成成功的战略愿景和高效的资源管理。在本文中，我们展示了系统动力学模型 Nexus_SDM 的结构，该模型将来自主要数据库（例如 EUROSTAT）和情景模型（例如 E3ME-FTT OSeMOSYS 和 SWIM）的特定部门数据映射到希腊的国家案例研究中。通过将年度国家规模数据转换为详细的时空数据集，在每个月的时间跨度内分配到所有 14 个流域区（RBD），采用了细分算法。Nexus_SDM 计算关联互馈因素，并量化水、能源、粮食、建成环境、自然土地和温室气体（GHG）排放之间的互馈关系。它模拟希腊国家案例研究中的关联，作为一个整体的多部门系统，并提供对资源在未来社会经济情景下的脆弱性的深入了解。它计算作物类型/面积、灌溉用水和农业价值之间的联系，揭示了哪些作物具有最高的农业价值，用水量和作物面积最少。它表明，化石燃料发电和石油在交通运输中的使用是大多数 RBD 中 GHG 排放的主要原因，并提供了 2030 年和 2050 年的预测。该分析表明，要将一般关联思维转变为可操作的关联概念，重要的是要关注数据可用性和规模。引入了高级 Sankey 和 Chord 图来展示 RBD 之间的资源利用分布，并开发了一种创新的可视化工具，即关联定向 Chord 图，它揭示了关联热点和部门之间的强关联，促进了利益相关者的认识。
