Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
Department of Psychology, University of Texas at El Paso.
Psychol Assess. 2020 Jun;32(6):568-581. doi: 10.1037/pas0000813. Epub 2020 Mar 2.
A dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, there is a corresponding change in the likelihood of the outcome. In corrections, there is evidence for dynamic risk factors when relatively more proximal reassessments enhance predictive validity for recidivism. In this article, we tested the proximity hypothesis with longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 68,667 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by corrections case managers). In this sample, reassessments consistently improved prediction as demonstrated by (1) incremental prediction over initial baseline scores and (2) improved model fit of the most recent assessment compared with the average of earlier scores. These results contribute to a growing body of evidence that support community corrections agencies conducting repeated assessments of the risk for imminent recidivism using a dynamic risk instrument. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).
动态风险因素是指随时间变化而变化的变量，随着其变化，结果发生的可能性也会相应变化。在惩教领域，当相对更接近当下的重新评估提高累犯的预测有效性时，就存在动态风险因素的证据。在本文中，我们使用来自新西兰受监督假释的 3421 个人的纵向、多次重新评估数据检验了接近假设（N=68667 次由惩教案件管理人员对理论上动态风险因素的评估）。在这个样本中，重新评估始终提高了预测能力，这表现为：（1）与初始基线分数相比，增量预测；（2）与早期分数的平均值相比，最近评估的模型拟合度提高。这些结果为越来越多的证据提供了支持，这些证据支持社区惩教机构使用动态风险工具对即将发生的累犯风险进行多次评估。（PsycInfo 数据库记录（c）2020 APA，保留所有权利）。
