Predictive value of insulin-like growth factor 1-Child-Turcotte-Pugh score for mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have used a modified version of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to include insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) concentrations, denoted the Insulin-like Growth Factor 1-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (IGF-CTP) system. We evaluated the predictive power of IGF-CTP for 1-year mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC).

METHODS

A total of 386 patients with DC were retrospectively analyzed. Comparison of distribution of patients with decompensated cirrhosis according to Insulin-like Growth Factor-1-Child-Turcotte-Pugh and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores were performed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for IGF-CTP, CTP and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were evaluated to compare predictive value. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to determine potential risk factors for 1-y mortality.

RESULTS

During the 1-y follow-up, 94 patients died. Significantly more patients (both surviving and non-surviving) were classified as IGF-CTP stage C than CTP stage C. The AUROC of IGF-CTP was significantly higher than that of CTP and MELD in the training and validation cohorts. Multivariate analysis indicated IGF-CTP score and IGF-1 to be independently associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

The IGF-CTP score is independently associated with mortality for patients with DC, and offers more accurate prediction of 1-y mortality than either CTP or MELD score for these patients.