偶然不确定性和认知不确定性可能会使医学研究结果完全偏离方向。
Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties can completely derail medical research results.
作者信息
Indrayan A
机构信息
Department of Clinical Research, Max Healthcare Institute, Saket, New Delhi, India.
出版信息
J Postgrad Med. 2020 Apr-Jun;66(2):94-98. doi: 10.4103/jpgm.JPGM_585_19.
Abstract
Aleatory uncertainties are generated by intrinsic factors such as studying a sample rather than the whole population and the source of epistemic uncertainties is extraneous such as limitations of knowledge. These uncertainties inflict all the findings in empirical medical research, but they are rarely appreciated. This article highlights these uncertainties and shows with the help of an example how apparently valid and reliable findings can completely derail due to these uncertainties. We conclude that aleatory and epistemic uncertainties should get due consideration while drawing conclusions and before the results are put into practice. Methods to reduce their impact on results are also presented.
摘要
偶然不确定性是由内在因素产生的，比如研究的是样本而非总体，而认知不确定性的来源是外在的，比如知识的局限性。这些不确定性影响着实证医学研究中的所有发现，但它们很少得到重视。本文强调了这些不确定性，并通过一个例子展示了看似有效且可靠的发现如何会因这些不确定性而完全偏离方向。我们得出结论，在得出结论以及将结果付诸实践之前，应适当考虑偶然不确定性和认知不确定性。文中还介绍了减少它们对结果影响的方法。
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