European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden.
Health Protection Surveillance Centre, Dublin, Ireland.
Zoonoses Public Health. 2020 Jun;67(4):362-369. doi: 10.1111/zph.12695. Epub 2020 Mar 6.
Campylobacter is the most common notifiable cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in humans in Ireland. However, epidemiological information is limited. We aimed to describe Campylobacter epidemiology in Ireland and trends over time, to inform future surveillance and research. We reviewed data completeness and described notified cases of campylobacteriosis (2004-2016) by age, sex, geographical area, season and trends over time. We used negative binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and adjusted IRR (aIRR) by age group, sex, geographical area and season. We undertook interrupted time-series analysis by age group and geographical area incorporating terms for trend and period (2004-2010 and 2011-2016). There were 27,034 cases of campylobacteriosis notified between 2004 and 2016. Data were >99% complete for notification date, geographical area, sex and date of birth. Crude annual incidence ranged from 36.2 to 54.4 per 100,000 population. The incidence was higher in, males (aIRR 1.15, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.12-1.19), those aged <5 years compared with the lowest incidence age group (45-64 years) (aIRR 4.65, 95% CI 4.43-4.88), other seasons compared with winter and all other areas compared with the north-east area (aIRR range 1.22-1.71, p-values <.001). In 2011, we observed a stepped increase in annual crude incidence overall, in both sexes, all age groups and most geographical areas. This pattern was mirrored on time-series analysis, with significant increases in trend-adjusted incidences of 30%-45% (p-values ≤.008) detected for all age groups and 30%-66% (p-values ≤.012) for seven out of eight geographical areas after 2011. Campylobacter remains the most commonly notified bacterial cause of gastroenteritis in Ireland. With available information, we could not fully explain a stepped increase in incidence observed in 2011. The transition of regional laboratories from culture-based to molecular-based Campylobacter diagnostic methods was a possible contributor. However, further investigation is required to fully explain the identified changes.
弯曲菌是爱尔兰人类细菌性肠胃炎最常见的法定报告病因。然而，流行病学信息有限。我们旨在描述爱尔兰弯曲菌病的流行病学情况及其随时间的变化趋势，为未来的监测和研究提供信息。我们回顾了数据完整性，并按年龄、性别、地理区域、季节和随时间的变化描述了弯曲菌病（2004-2016 年）的报告病例。我们使用负二项回归来估计发病率比值（IRR）和按年龄组、性别、地理区域和季节调整的发病率比值（aIRR）。我们对年龄组和地理区域进行了中断时间序列分析，其中包含趋势和时期（2004-2010 年和 2011-2016 年）的术语。2004 年至 2016 年间，共报告了 27034 例弯曲菌病。通知日期、地理区域、性别和出生日期的完整率>99%。总发病率为每 100,000 人口 36.2-54.4 例。男性（aIRR 1.15，95%置信区间[CI] 1.12-1.19）和<5 岁者（aIRR 4.65，95%CI 4.43-4.88）发病率较高，与发病率最低的年龄组（45-64 岁）相比，其他季节（aIRR 范围 1.22-1.71，p 值<.001）和所有其他地区（aIRR 范围 1.22-1.71，p 值<.001）的发病率也较高。2011 年，我们观察到总体上男女两性、所有年龄组和大多数地理区域的年粗发病率呈阶梯式上升。时间序列分析也反映了这种模式，2011 年后，所有年龄组的趋势调整发病率均显著增加了 30%-45%（p 值≤.008），8 个地理区域中的 7 个也显著增加了 30%-66%（p 值≤.012）。弯曲菌仍然是爱尔兰最常见的法定报告细菌性肠胃炎病因。根据现有信息，我们无法完全解释 2011 年观察到的发病率阶梯式上升。区域实验室从基于培养的方法向基于分子的弯曲菌诊断方法的转变可能是一个促成因素。然而，需要进一步调查以充分解释所确定的变化。
