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唐纳德·特朗普总统在 Twitter 上发布的消息对美国股市的影响。

Under his thumb the effect of president Donald Trump's Twitter messages on the US stock market.

机构信息

Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.

School of Management, University of Saint Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2020 Mar 11;15(3):e0229931. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229931. eCollection 2020.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0229931
PMID:32160241
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7065837/
Abstract

Does president Trump's use of Twitter affect financial markets? The president frequently mentions companies in his tweets and, as such, tries to gain leverage over their behavior. We analyze the effect of president Trump's Twitter messages that specifically mention a company name on its stock market returns. We find that tweets from the president which reveal strong negative sentiment are followed by reduced market value of the company mentioned, whereas supportive tweets do not render a significant effect. Our methodology does not allow us to conclude about the exact mechanism behind these findings and can only be used to investigate short-term effects.

摘要

特朗普总统使用 Twitter 是否会影响金融市场?总统经常在其推文中提到公司,并试图以此对其行为施加影响。我们分析了特朗普总统在推文中特别提到公司名称对其股票市场回报的影响。我们发现,总统发布的带有强烈负面情绪的推文会导致所提到的公司市值缩水,而支持性推文则没有产生显著影响。我们的方法无法确定这些发现背后的确切机制,只能用于研究短期影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ac4/7065837/4c6ad17ddfbd/pone.0229931.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ac4/7065837/4c6ad17ddfbd/pone.0229931.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ac4/7065837/4c6ad17ddfbd/pone.0229931.g001.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.推特情绪对股票价格回报的影响。
PLoS One. 2015 Sep 21;10(9):e0138441. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138441. eCollection 2015.
2
When can social media lead financial markets?社交媒体何时能够引领金融市场?
Sci Rep. 2014 Feb 27;4:4213. doi: 10.1038/srep04213.
运用因果影响贝叶斯分析对“特朗普效应”对美国金融市场的影响进行实证研究。
Heliyon. 2020 Aug 26;6(8):e04760. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04760. eCollection 2020 Aug.