Retroactive Application of a New Risk Index for Living Donor Kidney Transplantation to Renal Transplants in Veracruz, Mexico.

BACKGROUND

The Living Kidney Donor Profile Index (LKDPI) was recently created. This model predicts recipient risk of graft loss after living donor transplant. Herein, we applied the LDKPI to our population to analyze its performance.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all living donor kidney transplants from 2003 to 2018 from 2 transplant centers in Veracruz, Mexico, was used. LKDPI was calculated in a webpage (www.transplantmodels.com). Donor and recipient demographics and transplant data included in the model were registered. Pearson correlation between the LKDPI percentage and death-censored graft survival was performed. Kaplan-Meier survival (log-rank) and Cox regression analysis were compared between the LKPDI quartiles. P < .05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

In total, 821 transplants were included (mean age 31.7 ± 10.5 years, 62.5% male, n = 513). Mean follow-up was 64.7 ± 46.2 months. Mean estimated survival (Kaplan-Meier) was 128.9 ± 3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 123-134). Ten-year death-censored graft survival was 61.4%. Median LKPDI was -2%, and mean LKDPI was -2.6% ± 14.6% (range, -50% to 42%). Pearson coefficient correlation between the LKDPI and death-censored graft survival was 0.024 (P = .4). Area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic [ROC]) for the LKDPI and death-censored graft loss was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.505-0.591) (P = .04). Recipients with the lowest LKDPI had lower risk of death-censored graft loss than other quartiles (P = .014 log-rank). Cox regression analysis was significant for the lower LKDPI quartile (<20%) (Exp B = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.14-0.9; P = .03).

CONCLUSION

The LKDPI applies with moderate discrimination predictive power in our population. The best LKDPI patient has better death-censored graft survival. Further studies might continue to validate the LKDPI in other cohorts.