Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, 2000, Maribor, Slovenia.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, 2000, Maribor, Slovenia.
Sci Rep. 2020 Mar 24;10(1):5299. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-62305-3.
The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR; Vojvodina, Serbia) is facing a fast successional process. Open sand steppe habitats, considered as regional biodiversity hotspots, have drastically decreased over the last 25 years. This study combines multi-temporal and -spectral remotely sensed data, in-situ sampling techniques and geospatial modelling procedures to estimate and predict the potential development of open habitats and their biota from the perspective of antlions (Neuroptera, Myrmeleontidae). It was confirmed that vegetation density increased in all parts of the study area between 1992 and 2017. Climate change, manifested in the mean annual precipitation amount, significantly contributes to the speed of succession that could be completed within a 50-year period. Open grassland habitats could reach an alarming fragmentation rate by 2075 (covering 50 times less area than today), according to selected global climate models and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). However, M. trigrammus could probably survive in the DSSNR until the first half of the century, but its subsequent fate is very uncertain. The information provided in this study can serve for effective management of sand steppes, and antlions should be considered important indicators for conservation monitoring and planning.
德拉比利采沙丘特别自然保护区（DSSNR；塞尔维亚伏伊伏丁那）正面临着快速的演替过程。开阔的沙丘草原生境被认为是区域生物多样性热点，但在过去的 25 年中急剧减少。本研究结合多时相和多光谱遥感数据、现场采样技术和地理空间建模程序，从沙蟹（脉翅目，蚁蛉科）的角度估计和预测开阔生境及其生物区系的潜在发展。研究结果证实，1992 年至 2017 年间，研究区域内所有地区的植被密度均有所增加。气候变化，表现在年平均降水量的增加，显著加速了演替过程，预计在 50 年内即可完成。根据选定的全球气候模型和排放情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5），到 2075 年，开阔草原生境的破碎化速度可能会达到惊人的程度（覆盖面积比今天减少 50 倍）。然而，Myrmeleon trigrammus 可能会在 DSSNR 中生存到本世纪上半叶，但随后的命运非常不确定。本研究提供的信息可用于有效的管理沙质草原，蚁蛉可以被视为保护监测和规划的重要指标。
