State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China.
Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA.
Nat Commun. 2020 Mar 25;11(1):1544. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15246-4.
Anthropogenic mineral is absorbing wide concern in the context of circular economy, but its generation mechanism and quantity from product to waste remain unclear. Here we consider three product groups, 30 products, and use the revised Weibull lifespan model to map the generation of anthropogenic mineral and 23 types of the capsulated materials by targeting their evolution from 2010 to 2050. Total weight of anthropogenic mineral on average in China reached 39 Mt in 2010, but it will double in 2022 and quadruple in 2045. Stocks of precious metals and rare earths will increase faster than most base materials. The total economic potential in yearly-generated anthropogenic mineral is anticipated to grow markedly from 100 billion US$ in 2020 to 400 billion US$ in 2050. Furthermore, anthropogenic mineral of around 20 materials will be capable to meet projected consumption of three product groups by 2050.
人为矿物在循环经济背景下受到广泛关注，但产品到废物的人为矿物生成机制和数量仍不清楚。在这里，我们考虑了三个产品组，30 种产品，并使用修正的 Weibull 寿命模型来映射人为矿物和 23 种封装材料的生成，针对它们从 2010 年到 2050 年的演变。2010 年中国人为矿物的平均总重量达到 3900 万吨，但到 2022 年将翻一番，到 2045 年将翻两番。贵金属和稀土的存量增长速度将快于大多数基础材料。预计每年产生的人为矿物的总经济潜力将从 2020 年的 1000 亿美元显著增长到 2050 年的 4000 亿美元。此外，到 2050 年，约 20 种人为矿物将能够满足三个产品组的预计消费。
