Air pollution emission effects of changes in transport supply: the case of Bogotá, Colombia.

Transportation policy and planning decisions, including decisions on new infrastructure and public transport improvements, affect local and global environmental conditions. This work studies the effect of increased road capacity on traffic-related emissions in Bogotá using a tool that couples a transportation model with emission factors from COPERT IV. We followed a parametric approach varying transport supply and demand, comparing three scenarios: a baseline scenario that represents the transportation system in Bogota in 2015; scenario 1 incorporates five highway capacity-enhancement projects in Bogotá and assumes insensitive travel demand; scenario 2 incorporates the new highway projects but assumes a demand increase of 13% in vehicle trips with private cars. Results include daily and annual values of traffic-related emissions of five air pollutant criteria: CO, NO, PM, SO, and VOC for the baseline scenario, scenario 1, and scenario 2. We found a reduction in emissions after adding highway capacity and assuming inelastic demand (scenario 1). Scenario 1 results in a 15% reduction in PM emissions and a 10% reduction in NO emissions. In contrast, results for scenario 2 suggest increased emissions for all air pollutant criteria (e.g., VOC and CO emissions increase by 21% and 22% compared with the baseline scenario). Therefore, new traffic demand would eliminate the emission savings observed in scenario 1 and could potentially further degrade air quality in Bogotá. While an exact estimate of induced demand that may result from highway expansion in Bogotá is not available, this analysis highlights that such projects could lead to an increase in emissions unless there is a combined effort to managing demand of private vehicle trips.