Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA.
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA.
Environ Pollut. 2018 Jul;238:903-917. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.020. Epub 2018 Apr 17.
Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH), and sulfur dioxide (SO) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO, VOC, and NH, while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations.
交通运输部门的排放正在全球范围内迅速变化；然而，气候变化背景下这种排放变化的相互作用还没有得到很好的理解。本研究分为两部分，第一部分考察了美国交通运输部门排放预测（第一部分）对气候变化下大气环境质量的影响（第二部分）。在本研究的第一部分中，我们描述了一种新的技术驱动模型的方法和结果（见图形摘要），该模型包括 1）运输排放预测（包括道路车辆、非道路发动机、飞机、铁路和船舶），这些预测来自于一个动态技术模型，该模型考虑了各种技术和政策选项在一个 IPCC 排放情景下的情况，以及 2）天气研究与预测/社区多尺度空气质量建模系统的动态下推配置/评估。到 2046-2050 年，美国大陆地区的年度域平均交通运输一氧化碳（CO）、氮氧化物（NO）、挥发性有机化合物（VOC）、氨（NH）和二氧化硫（SO）排放量预计将减少。气态排放的减少主要是由于道路车辆和非道路发动机排放量的减少，这些排放量在美国各地具有空间和季节性变化。尽管颗粒物（PM）排放量普遍减少，但由于船舶排放量的增加，美国的一些地区相对增加较大。道路车辆排放主导 CO、NO、VOC 和 NH 的排放变化，而道路和非道路模式的排放对 PM 和 SO 排放变化都有强烈的贡献。对 2005 年 WRF 模拟的基准评估表明，年偏差接近或在文献中气象性能可接受标准范围内，并且在 2005 年 CMAQ 模拟的化学变量与地面和卫星观测之间存在总体良好的一致性。
