Department of Economics, Clark University, Worcester, MA, 01610, United States.
George Perkins Marsh Institute and Department of Economics, Clark University, Worcester, MA, 01610, United States.
J Environ Manage. 2020 May 15;262:110262. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110262. Epub 2020 Feb 25.
The preservation of salt marshes under rapid sea-level rise (SLR) typically requires the conservation of marsh transgression zones-undeveloped uplands onto which marshes can migrate. Optimal planning for conservation of this type requires information on the expected benefit of marsh conservation and the cost of land suitable for marsh migration in particular areas. While information is available on marsh benefits within the literature, prior research provides little insight on associated land conservation costs. The coastal hedonic pricing literature focuses primarily on developed land, and there are no models designed to predict the cost of conserving land suitable for marsh migration. This paper develops a hedonic property value model to predict cost and explore price patterns associated with purchases of undeveloped land suitable for salt marsh migration under SLR. The model is illustrated using a case study from the Eastern Shore of Virginia, with a dataset consisting of open-market sales of undeveloped land from 2014 to 2017. Particular attention is paid to characteristics that determine marsh migration potential such as coastal distance, elevation and connectivity. Results demonstrate the insight for conservation planning that can be provided by models of this type and the errors associated with the use of simplified proxies to predict conservation costs of land suitable for marsh migration.
在海平面快速上升（SLR）的情况下，保护盐沼通常需要保护沼泽入侵区——未开发的高地，沼泽可以向这些高地迁移。为了对这种类型的保护进行最佳规划，需要了解预期的沼泽保护效益以及特定地区适合沼泽迁移的土地成本。尽管文献中提供了有关沼泽效益的信息，但先前的研究几乎没有提供有关相关土地保护成本的深入了解。沿海特征价格文献主要集中在已开发土地上，并且没有设计用于预测保护适合沼泽迁移的土地成本的模型。本文开发了一种特征价格价值模型，以预测成本并探索与 SLR 下适合盐沼迁移的未开发土地购买相关的价格模式。该模型使用弗吉尼亚州东海岸的案例研究进行说明，数据集包括 2014 年至 2017 年公开市场上未开发土地的销售情况。特别关注决定沼泽迁移潜力的特征，例如沿海距离、海拔和连通性。结果展示了这种类型的模型可以为保护规划提供的见解，以及使用简化代理来预测适合沼泽迁移的土地保护成本的相关误差。
