Kusano Kodai, Kemmelmeier Markus
Interdisciplinary Social Psychology, University of Nevada, Mail Stop 1300, MSS 344, 1664 N. Virginia Street Reno, Reno, NV 89557, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2020 Mar 18;7(3):191804. doi: 10.1098/rsos.191804. eCollection 2020 Mar.
What is the relationship between environment and democracy? The framework of cultural evolution suggests that societal development is an adaptation to ecological threats. Pertinent theories assume that democracy emerges as societies adapt to ecological factors such as higher economic wealth, lower pathogen threats, less demanding climates and fewer natural disasters. However, previous research confused within-country processes with between-country processes and erroneously interpreted between-country findings as if they generalize to within-country mechanisms. We analyse a time-series cross-sectional dataset to study the dynamic relationship between environment and democracy (1949-2016), accounting for previous misconceptions in levels of analysis. By separating within-country processes from between-country processes, we find that the relationship between environment and democracy not only differs by country but also depends on the level of analysis. Economic wealth predicts increasing levels of democracy in between-country comparisons, but within-country comparisons show that democracy declines in years when countries become wealthier. This relationship is only prevalent among historically wealthy countries but not among historically poor countries, whose wealth also increased over time. By contrast, pathogen prevalence predicts lower levels of democracy in both between-country and within-country comparisons. Multi-level modelling also confirms that the within-country effect of pathogen prevalence remains robust even after considering a region-level analysis. Longitudinal analyses identifying temporal precedence reveal that not only reductions in pathogen prevalence drive future democracy, but also democracy reduces future pathogen prevalence and increases future wealth. These nuanced results contrast with previous analyses using narrow, cross-sectional data. Overall, our findings illuminate the dynamic process by which environment and democracy shape each other.
环境与民主之间的关系是什么？文化进化框架表明，社会发展是对生态威胁的一种适应。相关理论假定，随着社会适应诸如更高的经济财富、更低的病原体威胁、要求不高的气候条件以及更少的自然灾害等生态因素，民主应运而生。然而，以往的研究将国内进程与国家间进程混为一谈，并错误地将国家间的研究结果解读为似乎它们可以推广到国内机制。我们分析了一个时间序列横截面数据集，以研究环境与民主之间的动态关系（1949 - 2016年），同时考虑到以往在分析层面上的误解。通过将国内进程与国家间进程区分开来，我们发现环境与民主之间的关系不仅因国家而异，还取决于分析层面。在国家间比较中，经济财富预示着民主水平的提高，但在国内比较中，当国家变得更富裕时，民主水平却会下降。这种关系仅在历史上富裕的国家中普遍存在，而在历史上贫穷但财富也随时间增加的国家中并不存在。相比之下，无论是在国家间还是国内比较中，病原体流行率都预示着较低的民主水平。多层次建模也证实，即使在考虑了区域层面的分析之后，病原体流行率的国内效应仍然很强。确定时间先后顺序的纵向分析表明，不仅病原体流行率的降低推动了未来的民主，而且民主也降低了未来的病原体流行率并增加了未来的财富。这些细致入微的结果与以往使用狭义横截面数据的分析形成了对比。总体而言，我们的研究结果揭示了环境与民主相互塑造的动态过程。
