School of Public Affairs, University of Colorado Colorado Springs,1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway,Colorado Springs, CO 80919, United States.
Child Abuse Negl. 2020 Jun;104:104472. doi: 10.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104472. Epub 2020 Apr 7.
Modeling the spatio-temporal characteristics of substantiated child maltreatment risk has significant implications for child welfare policy.
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal risk of child abuse and neglect in New Mexico at the census tract level over 9 years, identifies areas of increased risk, and evaluates the role of multiple measures of social and housing insecurity on substantiated child maltreatment referrals.
Child maltreatment substantiation data across 499 census tracts from 2007 to 2015 were obtained from the New Mexico Department of Public Health.
Substantiated referral counts were analyzed within census tracts with Bayesian hierarchical space-time models using Laplace approximation. Standardized incidence ratios, spatial risk, and probability exceedances were calculated and mapped.
Multiple neighborhood structural factors were associated with an increased risk of substantiated child maltreatment, including the eviction rate (Incidence Density Ratio [IDR] = 1.09 [95 % CrI = 1.01-1.12]), rent burden (IDR = 1.11 [95 % CrI = 1.01-1.13]), urban tracts (IDR = 1.36 [95 % CrI = 1.05-1.77]), food desert tracts (IDR = 1.21 [95 % CrI = 1.04-1.41]), low income tracts (IDR = 1.27 [95 % CrI = 1.09-1.49]), percent of households with no vehicle access ([IDR] = 1.27 [95 % CrI = .247-6.47]), and percent of persons with a disability (IDR = 1.05 [95 % CrI = 1.03-1.06]). The racial/ethnic diversity ratio, however, was associated with lower incidence of child maltreatment allegation risk (IDR = .988 [95 % CrI = .982-.995]).
Population-based child abuse and neglect prevention and intervention efforts should be aided by the characteristics of neighborhoods that demonstrate strong spatial patterns of household and housing vulnerability, particularly in low income, racially segregated neighborhoods.
建模已证实的儿童虐待风险的时空特征对儿童福利政策具有重要意义。
本研究在 9 年内量化了新墨西哥州每一个普查小区层面上儿童虐待和忽视的时空风险，确定了风险增加的区域，并评估了多种社会和住房不安全措施对已证实的儿童虐待转介的作用。
从新墨西哥州公共卫生部获得了 2007 年至 2015 年 499 个普查小区的儿童虐待证实数据。
使用拉普拉斯近似法，在贝叶斯层次时空模型中对普查小区内的证实转介计数进行分析。计算并绘制了标准化发病比、空间风险和概率超标。
多个邻里结构因素与已证实的儿童虐待风险增加有关，包括驱逐率（发病率密度比 [IDR] = 1.09 [95%置信区间 = 1.01-1.12]）、租金负担（IDR = 1.11 [95%置信区间 = 1.01-1.13]）、城市普查小区（IDR = 1.36 [95%置信区间 = 1.05-1.77]）、食物荒漠普查小区（IDR = 1.21 [95%置信区间 = 1.04-1.41]）、低收入普查小区（IDR = 1.27 [95%置信区间 = 1.09-1.49]）、没有交通工具的家庭比例（[IDR] = 1.27 [95%置信区间 =.247-6.47]）和残疾人口比例（IDR = 1.05 [95%置信区间 = 1.03-1.06]）。然而，种族/民族多样性比率与儿童虐待指控风险的发病率较低有关（IDR =.988 [95%置信区间 =.982-.995]）。
基于人群的儿童虐待和忽视预防和干预工作应受益于具有家庭和住房脆弱性强烈空间模式的邻里特征，特别是在低收入、种族隔离的社区。
