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亚北极森林能否跟上气候变化的步伐?

Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

机构信息

Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway.

出版信息

Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Jul;26(7):3965-3977. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15113. Epub 2020 May 9.

Abstract

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~10 -10  m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.

摘要

最近的气候变暖以及进一步变暖的情景预计将导致生态边界的快速移动。在这里,我们重点关注环北极森林-苔原生态交错带(FTE),它代表了一个重要的生物气候带,森林的推进以及相应的苔原消失(本世纪预计将损失高达 50%)带来了广泛的生态和气候变化。我们利用环北极地区 151 个地点的 FTE 响应数据和特定地点的气候数据,研究了 FTE 推进与 20 世纪气候历史的关系。具体来说,我们调查了 FTE 推进的空间均匀性、与 20 世纪气候趋势的统计关联,以及推进速度是否与气候变化速度(CCV)匹配。根据其气候历史,研究地点分为四个区域(加拿大东部;加拿大中部和西部以及阿拉斯加;西伯利亚;和欧洲西部),尽管所有区域都表现出类似的定性行为模式(约有一半的地点表现出推进行为)。气候趋势变量与行为之间的主要关联表明,降水对定性和定量行为都很重要,而非生长季节和生长季节月份也很重要。纬度推进率在各区域之间存在显著差异,加拿大东部最小(约 10 米/年),欧洲西部最大(约 100 米/年)。如果植被分布与气候保持平衡,这些速度将比预期小 1-2 个数量级。影响 FTE 行为的许多生物和非生物因素使得与预测的 21 世纪 CCV(~10 -10 米/年)相匹配的极向推进速度不太可能。快速森林迁移的实证证据不足,以及 CCV 和 FTE 响应之间的差异,与基于平衡模型的假设相矛盾,在评估与全球变化相关的生物和非生物影响时,包括陆地-大气反馈和碳封存,需要谨慎。

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