Vasheghani Farahani Mahtab, Ataee Dizaji Parisa, Rashidi Hamid, Mokarian Fariborz, Biglarian Akbar
Department of Biostatistics, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Faculty of Medicine, Cancer Prevention Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Iran.
J Res Health Sci. 2020 Jan 5;19(4):e00465.
The multistate model is used generally to fit the longitudinal data. This model can determine the natural trend of disease progress in different states of treatment, recuperate, metastasis and finally death. We aimed to use multistate models in order to analyzing breast cancer (BC) data.
A historical cohort study.
In this historical cohort study, 573 women with BC were studied. These patients were referred to Isfahan Sayed-o-Shohada Hospital during 1999-2006 and followed up to Apr 2017. The corresponding provided data were gathered by Isfahan Cancer Prevention Center. Then data analyzed by multistate models in R 3.4.1 software.
The mean and standard deviation of women age were 47.19±10.77 years. The transition probability from state of first treatment to recuperate state was 71%, to metastasis state 2% and to death was 16%. The sojourn time in different states of disease was 2.39 yr for first treatment, 6.93 yr for recuperate and 0.16 yr for death.
This model is able to predict the transition probabilities in different state of disease, so its results are useful for clinical researches. In addition, with transition probabilities and also survival mean in each state in hand, the physicians will be able to suggest suitable treatment plans for patients.
多状态模型通常用于拟合纵向数据。该模型可以确定疾病在治疗、康复、转移以及最终死亡等不同状态下进展的自然趋势。我们旨在使用多状态模型来分析乳腺癌（BC）数据。
一项历史性队列研究。
在这项历史性队列研究中，对573例乳腺癌女性患者进行了研究。这些患者于1999年至2006年期间被转诊至伊斯法罕赛义德-奥-肖哈达医院，并随访至2017年4月。相应的数据由伊斯法罕癌症预防中心收集。然后在R 3.4.1软件中通过多状态模型对数据进行分析。
女性患者的平均年龄和标准差分别为47.19±10.77岁。从首次治疗状态到康复状态的转移概率为71%，到转移状态为2%，到死亡为16%。疾病不同状态下的停留时间分别为：首次治疗2.39年，康复6.93年，死亡0.16年。
该模型能够预测疾病不同状态下的转移概率，因此其结果对临床研究有用。此外，掌握了转移概率以及每个状态下的平均生存期后，医生将能够为患者建议合适的治疗方案。
