Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde e Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco, Av. José de Sá Maniçoba, s/n, Centro, Petrolina-PE, 56304-917, Brazil.
Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Alagoas Av. Manoel Severino Barbosa, Bom Sucesso, Arapiraca-AL, 57309-005, Brazil.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2020 Aug 1;114(8):575-584. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa024.
More than 95% of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases in Latin America occur in Brazil, most of them in the northeast. The objective of this study was to identify spatial clusters with the highest risks of VL and to analyse the temporal behaviour of the incidence and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease transmission dynamic in northeastern Brazil.
All confirmed cases registered as residents in the state of Pernambuco during the period from 2007 to 2017 were analysed. The local empirical Bayesian method was applied and the association -between the VL incidence rate and municipal social vulnerability was tested via classic multivariate regression.
A total of 1186 new cases were registered during the study period. Spatial analysis showed heterogeneous distribution, with the highest rates observed in the São Francisco and Sertão mesoregions. Moreover, the main factors associated with VL were urban infrastructure, income and work.
It was observed that spatial and temporal techniques are important tools for defining risk areas for VL, in conjunction with the evaluation of indexes of social vulnerability, which was shown to be an important factor for comprehending associations with VL in the state of Pernambuco.
拉丁美洲超过 95%的内脏利什曼病（VL）病例发生在巴西，其中大部分在东北部。本研究的目的是确定具有最高 VL 风险的空间聚集区，并分析发病率的时间行为以及社会脆弱性对巴西东北部疾病传播动态的影响。
分析了 2007 年至 2017 年期间在伯南布哥州登记的所有确诊病例。应用局部经验贝叶斯方法，并通过经典多变量回归检验 VL 发病率与市政社会脆弱性之间的关联。
在研究期间共登记了 1186 例新发病例。空间分析显示分布不均匀，圣弗朗西斯科和塞特奥地区的发病率最高。此外，与 VL 相关的主要因素是城市基础设施、收入和工作。
观察到空间和时间技术是确定 VL 风险区域的重要工具，结合社会脆弱性指数的评估，这是理解伯南布哥州 VL 关联的一个重要因素。
