Division of Ocean Science and Technology, Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, 518055 Shenzhen, China.
Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons 20688, MD, United States of America.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 15;726:138556. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138556. Epub 2020 Apr 9.
Predicting disastrous wind and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) is critical to prevent and mitigate the casualties and damage of TCs. The studied warning area was chosen with a radius of 800 km centered on Hong Kong in which the tracks of TCs making landfall in China are concentrated. In general, the number of TCs making landfall decreased but landfall locations and intensities of TCs increased since 1990. Our results suggested minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) in TC affected areas was the predominant disaster-warning factor and indicator for the resulting risks and damages of TCs in 1975-2017. The MSLP of 990 hPa monitored in a TC affected area was a threshold for severe impacts and prediction of strong wind and heavy rainfall. Early warning using a combination of MSLP and the nearest approach distance of TCs (MSLP of 990 hPa for distance of 100 km) outperformed the current warning system based on wind speed, often providing more timely warning and reducing the false warnings.
预测与热带气旋 (TC) 相关的灾难性风和降雨对于预防和减轻 TC 造成的人员伤亡和损失至关重要。选择的研究预警区域的半径为 800 公里，以香港为中心，集中了在中国登陆的 TC 轨迹。总的来说，自 1990 年以来，登陆的 TC 数量减少了，但登陆地点和 TC 的强度增加了。我们的研究结果表明，1975 年至 2017 年，TC 影响地区的最低海平面气压 (MSLP) 是导致 TC 风险和破坏的主要灾害预警因素和指标。在 TC 影响地区监测到的 990 百帕斯卡的 MSLP 是严重影响和强风和大雨预测的阈值。使用 MSLP 和 TC 最近接近距离（距离 100 公里时为 990 百帕斯卡的 MSLP）的组合进行预警优于基于风速的现行预警系统，通常提供更及时的预警，并减少误报。
