Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville 37996.
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville 37996.
J Dairy Sci. 2020 Jun;103(6):5148-5161. doi: 10.3168/jds.2019-17516. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
This study analyzed differences between dairies that have closed compared with dairies still operating in the southeastern United States. Significant changes have occurred in the US dairy industry in the last decade, involving the number of dairy farms, herd size, milk quality, and management practices, yet the dairy industry remains the fourth leading agricultural sector in the United States, with $38 billion of milk sales in 2017. Although the number of dairy cows in the United States has remained relatively constant over the past decade, at approximately 9 million head, the number of dairy operations has decreased by 30%, resulting in larger dairies. This trend is even more prevalent in the southeastern United States, where the number of dairies has decreased by 39% from 5,315 in 2008 to only 3,235 in 2017. Additionally, downward pressure on bulk tank somatic cell count, which is used as a milk quality metric and has implications regarding animal health, intensified with US processors' introduction of incentive and penalty systems for quality milk production, necessitating better management of mastitis in dairy herds. In this context, this study examines factors that affect southeastern US dairy farms' persistence in the industry by using primary survey data collected in 2013 through a mail survey of Grade A dairies in Georgia, Mississippi, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. Dairies that were no longer operational had exited the industry from 2007 through 2014. A probit regression was used to determine which farm and operator characteristics were associated with the dairy's operational status. Dairy farms with more cows and higher average milk production per cow were more likely to be operational. For an additional 10 kg/d of milk production per cow, the dairy was 1.5% more likely to be operational. For each 100 additional cows a dairy had, it was 4% more likely to be operational. The analysis also identifies nonpecuniary determinants of operational status for southeastern US dairies, such as mastitis management practices. Findings suggest that operations capable of leveraging scale effects are more likely to remain operational, with results affirming the consolidation of the US dairy industry and demonstrating that more productive farms are more likely to stay in operation. Results also suggest that factors other than farm size affect a dairy's operational status.
本研究分析了已关闭的奶牛场与仍在美国东南部运营的奶牛场之间的差异。在过去十年中，美国奶业发生了重大变化，涉及奶牛场数量、牛群规模、牛奶质量和管理实践，但奶业仍然是美国第四大农业部门，2017 年牛奶销售额为 380 亿美元。尽管过去十年美国奶牛数量保持相对稳定，约为 900 万头，但奶牛场数量减少了 30%，导致奶牛场规模扩大。这一趋势在美国东南部更为明显，该地区的奶牛场数量从 2008 年的 5315 家减少到 2017 年的 3235 家，减少了 39%。此外，由于美国加工商引入了质量牛奶生产的激励和惩罚制度，对大容量奶罐体细胞计数（用作牛奶质量指标，并对动物健康产生影响）的下行压力加大，这就需要更好地管理奶牛群的乳腺炎。在这种情况下，本研究通过使用 2013 年通过对佐治亚州、密西西比州、肯塔基州、北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州和弗吉尼亚州的 A 级奶牛场进行邮件调查收集的主要调查数据，研究了影响美国东南部奶牛场在该行业持续经营的因素。不再运营的奶牛场已在 2007 年至 2014 年期间退出该行业。采用概率回归来确定哪些农场和运营商特征与奶牛场的运营状况相关。奶牛场拥有更多的奶牛和每头奶牛的平均牛奶产量更高，则更有可能运营。每增加 10 公斤/头的牛奶产量，奶牛场的运营可能性就会增加 1.5%。每增加 100 头奶牛，奶牛场的运营可能性就会增加 4%。分析还确定了美国东南部奶牛场运营状况的非经济决定因素，例如乳腺炎管理实践。研究结果表明，能够利用规模效应的运营更有可能保持运营，结果证实了美国奶业的整合，并表明更具生产力的农场更有可能继续运营。研究结果还表明，除了农场规模外，其他因素也会影响奶牛场的运营状况。
