Software systems to control sensitivity studies of Monte Carlo simulation models.

Studies of the sensitivity of Monte Carlo models to changes in the values of their features involve repetitive simulations. Subsequent displays and analyses express variation in simulated outcomes as a function of change in location in multidimensional feature space and provide feedback via inputs for future simulations. A software system has been designed to control execution of the interacting programs required, reducing the need for human intervention. Assumptions about the goals and operation of the system as a whole are isolated within a program which executes component packages using interprogram control and communication mechanisms. The latter allow component programs to operate independently of the sources of data or the execution environment: they may be used separately, or in software systems, such as for sensitivity analysis of a Monte Carlo epidemic model. The methodology contributes to modularity at the level of executable programs and to the plausibility and efficiency of sensitivity studies.