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我们如何评估症状之间的相互关系?

How can we evaluate an interrelation of symptoms?

机构信息

Tohoku University School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.

Dokkyo Medical University, Tochigi, Japan.

出版信息

Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 2020 Jul-Aug;89:104096. doi: 10.1016/j.archger.2020.104096. Epub 2020 May 7.

Abstract

A pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is an international problem and factors associated with increased risk of mortality have been reported. However, there exists limited statistical method to estimate a comprehensive risk for a case in which a patient has several characteristics and symptoms concurrently. We applied Boolean Monte Carlo method (BMCM) to the Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset to determine interrelation of patient's characteristics and symptoms. In the analyses, age, fever as an onset symptom, and sex were used as explanatory variables, and death as the objective variable. Among 265 patients included in the analysis, the interrelations for estimating death were determined as age "and" fever "and" sex (p < 0.0001 for both operators). This result indicates that satisfying the three conditions of age, fever, and sex concurrently may be associated with an increased risk of mortality.

摘要

2019 年新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行是一个国际性问题,据报道,与死亡率增加相关的因素。然而,对于同时具有多种特征和症状的病例,目前还没有有效的统计方法来评估其综合风险。我们应用布尔蒙特卡罗方法(BMCM)对新型冠状病毒 2019 数据集进行分析,以确定患者特征和症状之间的相互关系。在分析中,年龄、发热作为首发症状和性别被用作解释变量,死亡作为目标变量。在纳入分析的 265 例患者中,确定了死亡的相互关系为年龄“和”发热“和”性别(两个运算符的 P 值均<0.0001)。这一结果表明,同时满足年龄、发热和性别的三个条件可能与死亡率增加相关。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f27c/7204749/5999108fc1f3/gr1_lrg.jpg

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