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疫苗使用建模及其对登革热传播动力学的影响

Modelling the Use of Vaccine and on Dengue Transmission Dynamics.

作者信息

Ndii Meksianis Z

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Engineering, University of Nusa Cendana, Kupang 85361, Indonesia.

出版信息

Trop Med Infect Dis. 2020 May 13;5(2):78. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed5020078.

DOI:10.3390/tropicalmed5020078
PMID:32413992
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7345660/
Abstract

The use of vaccine and has been proposed as strategies against dengue. Research showed that the intervention is highly effective in areas with low to moderate transmission levels. On the other hand, the use of vaccine is strongly effective when it is implemented on seropositive individuals and areas with high transmission levels. The question that arises is could the combination of both strategies result in higher reduction in the number of dengue cases? This paper seeks to answer the aforementioned question by the use of a mathematical model. A deterministic model in the presence of vaccine and has been developed and analysed. Numerical simulations were presented and public health implications were discussed. The results showed that the performance of in reducing the number of dengue cases is better than that of vaccination if the vaccine efficacy is low, otherwise, the use of vaccine is sufficient to reduce dengue incidence and hence the combination of and vaccine is not necessary.

摘要

使用[此处原文缺失干预措施的具体内容]和疫苗已被提议作为对抗登革热的策略。研究表明,[此处原文缺失干预措施的具体内容]干预措施在低至中等传播水平的地区非常有效。另一方面,当疫苗应用于血清阳性个体和高传播水平地区时,效果非常显著。由此产生的问题是,这两种策略的结合是否能更大程度地减少登革热病例数?本文旨在通过使用数学模型来回答上述问题。已经开发并分析了一个存在疫苗和[此处原文缺失干预措施的具体内容]的确定性模型。给出了数值模拟并讨论了公共卫生意义。结果表明,如果疫苗效力较低,[此处原文缺失干预措施的具体内容]在减少登革热病例数方面的表现优于疫苗接种,否则,使用疫苗足以降低登革热发病率,因此[此处原文缺失干预措施的具体内容]和疫苗的结合没有必要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/677f1c7db5c2/tropicalmed-05-00078-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/8985baac7e7d/tropicalmed-05-00078-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/5b2490fd2e9b/tropicalmed-05-00078-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/da714025590d/tropicalmed-05-00078-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/a0f76603ec7e/tropicalmed-05-00078-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/677f1c7db5c2/tropicalmed-05-00078-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/8985baac7e7d/tropicalmed-05-00078-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/5b2490fd2e9b/tropicalmed-05-00078-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/da714025590d/tropicalmed-05-00078-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/a0f76603ec7e/tropicalmed-05-00078-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/07e5/7345660/677f1c7db5c2/tropicalmed-05-00078-g005.jpg

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引用本文的文献

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