State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; UMR Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, UPS, Toulouse 31062, France.
UMR Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, UPS, Toulouse 31062, France; State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430072, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 15;735:139543. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139543. Epub 2020 May 20.
The Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is critically endangered and has an extremely unique evolutionary history. Therefore, this species represents a global conservation priority and will be impacted by future climate and human pressures. Understanding the range and response to environmental change of this species is a priority for the identification of targeted conservation activities. We projected future range shifts of the Chinese giant salamander under the independent and combined impacts of climate change and human population density (HPD) variations by using ensemble species distribution models. We further evaluated the sustainability of existing nature reserves and identified priority areas for the mitigation or prevention of such pressures. Both climate change and increasing HPD tended to reduce the species range, with the latter leading to greater range losses and fragmentation of the range. Notably, 65.6%, 18.0% and 18.4% of the range loss were attributed solely to HPD change, solely to climate change and to their overlapping impacts, respectively. Overall, the average total and net losses of the species range were 52.5% and 23.4%, respectively, and HPD and climate changes were responsible for 71.4% and 28.6% of the net losses, respectively. We investigated the stability of the remaining species range and found that half of the nature reserves are likely vulnerable, with 57.1% and 66.7% of them likely to lose their conservation value in 2050 and 2070, respectively. To effectively protect this salamander, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously, especially considering the negative impact of human pressures in both contemporary periods and the near future. The species range shifts over space and time projected by this research could help guide long-term surveys and the sustainable conservation of wild habitats and populations of this ancient and endangered amphibian.
中国大鲵，世界上最大的两栖动物，极度濒危，具有极其独特的进化历史。因此，该物种代表了全球保护的优先事项，将受到未来气候和人类压力的影响。了解该物种的范围和对环境变化的响应是确定有针对性保护活动的优先事项。我们通过使用集合物种分布模型，预测了气候变化和人类人口密度（HPD）变化的独立和综合影响下中国大鲵的未来分布范围变化。我们进一步评估了现有自然保护区的可持续性，并确定了缓解或预防这些压力的优先领域。气候变化和 HPD 的增加都倾向于减少物种的范围，后者导致范围的更大损失和碎片化。值得注意的是，仅由于 HPD 变化、仅由于气候变化以及它们的重叠影响，分别导致了物种范围损失的 65.6%、18.0%和 18.4%。总体而言，物种范围的平均总损失和净损失分别为 52.5%和 23.4%，HPD 和气候变化分别对净损失的 71.4%和 28.6%负责。我们调查了剩余物种范围的稳定性，发现一半的自然保护区可能容易受到影响，其中 57.1%和 66.7%的自然保护区在 2050 年和 2070 年分别可能失去保护价值。为了有效保护这种大鲵，保护政策应同时应对这两种压力，特别是考虑到人类压力在当代和不久的将来的负面影响。本研究预测的物种范围在空间和时间上的变化，可以帮助指导长期调查和野生栖息地和种群的可持续保护这种古老而濒危的两栖动物。
