Sun Zijian, Zhao Tian, Hu Suwen, Chen Guangfeng, Zhu Wei, Peng Xiwen, Su Shengqi
College of Fisheries, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China.
CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization and Ecological Restoration Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Front Zool. 2025 Jul 29;22(1):16. doi: 10.1186/s12983-025-00570-6.
Habitat range shifts driven by climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at mountainous regions. As key consumers, amphibians play critical roles in mountainous ecosystems by contributing to nutrient cycling, soil aeration through burrowing activities, and aquatic bioturbation. However, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to limited mobility and strong dependence on ambient temperature. Understanding their ranges shifts and responses to various environmental factors is a priority for identifying target conservation areas at a local scale. Here, we developed ensemble models to examine the current distribution of suitable habitats for amphibians, identify the environmental determinants of these habitats, and predict the potential range shifts under different climate projections in 2055 and 2085 in Mount Emei, China.
Our results indicated that lowland areas exhibited higher geographical habitat suitability for amphibians, which serve as a transitional zone between urban regions and forests. The current distribution of amphibians is primarily associated with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and climate variables related to precipitation and solar radiation. This pattern may be attributed to amphibians' physiological constraints and their specific requirements for food and habitat. Interestingly, even in a region developed for tourism, anthropogenic factors exhibited a positive correlation with amphibian distribution. This may be explained by the high habitat suitability found in lowland suburban regions. Moreover, the small body size of amphibians allows them to thrive in smaller, specialized habitats. Looking toward the future, geographical habitat suitability for amphibians projected to decline, particularly in lowland suburban areas under the high-emission and high-carbon consumption scenarios. These areas currently represent important habitats for amphibians but are expected to experience substantial degradation. These findings highlight the need for targeted conservation efforts in areas currently providing high suitability for amphibians, which may face increased pressure over time.
This study identifies the key determinants of amphibians' current habitat suitability and illustrates a projected decline in overall habitat suitability under future climatic scenarios in Mount Emei. Future research on amphibian range shifts are encouraged to integrate considerations of their limited dispersal capacity and unique ecological characteristics.
气候变化驱动的栖息地范围变化威胁着全球生物多样性，这种影响在山区可能最为显著。作为关键消费者，两栖动物通过促进养分循环、通过挖掘活动进行土壤通气以及水生生物扰动，在山区生态系统中发挥着关键作用。然而，由于其活动能力有限且对环境温度的强烈依赖，它们特别容易受到气候变化的影响。了解它们的范围变化以及对各种环境因素的反应，是在地方尺度上确定目标保护区的首要任务。在此，我们开发了集成模型，以研究两栖动物适宜栖息地的当前分布，确定这些栖息地的环境决定因素，并预测中国峨眉山在2055年和2085年不同气候预测下潜在的范围变化。
我们的结果表明，低地地区对两栖动物表现出更高的地理栖息地适宜性，这些地区是城市区域和森林之间的过渡地带。两栖动物的当前分布主要与归一化植被指数以及与降水和太阳辐射相关的气候变量有关。这种模式可能归因于两栖动物的生理限制及其对食物和栖息地的特定要求。有趣的是，即使在一个为旅游开发的地区，人为因素与两栖动物分布也呈现正相关。这可能是由于在低地郊区发现的高栖息地适宜性。此外，两栖动物体型小，这使它们能够在较小的、特殊的栖息地中繁衍生息。展望未来，预计两栖动物的地理栖息地适宜性将下降，特别是在高排放和高碳消费情景下的低地郊区地区。这些地区目前是两栖动物的重要栖息地，但预计将经历大幅退化。这些发现凸显了在目前对两栖动物适宜性较高的地区进行有针对性保护工作的必要性，随着时间的推移，这些地区可能面临越来越大的压力。
本研究确定了两栖动物当前栖息地适宜性的关键决定因素，并说明了在峨眉山未来气候情景下总体栖息地适宜性预计会下降。鼓励未来关于两栖动物范围变化的研究纳入对其有限扩散能力和独特生态特征的考虑。
