Professor, School of Health Systems Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
Indian J Public Health. 2020 Jun;64(Supplement):S168-S171. doi: 10.4103/ijph.IJPH_508_20.
Mumbai is facing the full brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic epidemiologically and economically.
The objective was to understand the spatial distribution and trends of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mumbai during the lockdown period and draw insights for effective actions.
Spatial and trend analysis was conducted to trace the spread of the virus during the lockdown period in April 2020. The administrative divisions of Mumbai, in the form of wards and zones, have been used as units of analysis.
Greater Mumbai area occupies only 0.015% of the landmass of India, but is contributing to over 20% of the SARS-CoV-2 cases in India. Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections have increased over 375 times within 50 days of the lockdown. An analysis of trends across the wards during the 3-week period (April 4 to April 25) shows a skewed pattern, with three zones out of six contributing to the vast majority of cases in Mumbai. The wards with higher formal economic activity are relatively less affected than the other wards. The test positivity rate in Mumbai is much higher than the rest of India.
The study suggests that the virus had already spread to the community in Mumbai before the lockdown started.
孟买在流行病学和经济学方面正面临着 COVID-19 大流行的全面冲击。
本研究旨在了解 2020 年 4 月封锁期间孟买严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）的空间分布和趋势，为采取有效措施提供参考。
采用空间和趋势分析方法，追踪封锁期间病毒的传播情况。以行政区（ wards 和 zones）的形式对孟买进行了分析。
大孟买地区仅占印度陆地面积的 0.015%，但却贡献了印度 20%以上的 SARS-CoV-2 病例。在封锁后的 50 天内，SARS-CoV-2 感染病例增加了 375 多倍。对 3 周（4 月 4 日至 4 月 25 日）期间各区的趋势分析显示，6 个区中有 3 个区的病例占孟买绝大多数。正规经济活动较多的行政区受影响相对较小。孟买的检测阳性率远高于印度其他地区。
研究表明，在封锁开始之前，病毒已经在孟买社区传播。
