Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics and Montana State University Extension, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844.
Plant Dis. 2020 Aug;104(8):2060-2067. doi: 10.1094/PDIS-03-19-0443-SR. Epub 2020 Jun 17.
We examine the economic costs of potato virus Y (PVY) and benefits to commercial potato growers from using screened seed. To do so, we use a quantile regression model to explore disease spread. We use this model to predict disease prevalence and corresponding losses in commercial potato operations with and without a screening and certification program in place. Our analysis suggests that this screening is very important; the amount of PVY in seed in the summer test is the strongest predictor of PVY in the winter test of the variables in our model. The amount of PVY in the seed can have major effects on commercial potato grower revenues and profitability. Using data and models from Idaho, a major purchaser of Montana seed, we estimate the annual benefit from Montana's program to Idaho to average $205 per acre or $22 million for the state.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
我们考察了马铃薯 Y 病毒（PVY）给商业马铃薯种植者带来的经济成本，以及使用经过筛选的种子带来的好处。为此，我们使用分位数回归模型来探索疾病的传播。我们使用该模型来预测在有和没有筛选和认证计划的情况下，商业马铃薯种植者的疾病流行程度和相应损失。我们的分析表明，这种筛选非常重要；夏季测试中种子中 PVY 的数量是我们模型中变量冬季测试中 PVY 的最强预测指标。种子中的 PVY 数量会对商业马铃薯种植者的收入和盈利能力产生重大影响。我们使用来自爱达荷州的数据和模型，该州是蒙大拿州种子的主要购买者，估计蒙大拿州的计划为该州带来的年度收益平均为每英亩 205 美元，或 2200 万美元。[公式：见正文]版权所有 © 2020 作者。这是一篇在 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 国际许可下发布的开放获取文章。
