The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Public Health & Community Medicine, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
J Safety Res. 2020 Jun;73:93-101. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2020.02.003. Epub 2020 Feb 28.
Motorcycle riders have the highest injury and fatality rates among all road users. This research sought in-depth understanding of crash risk factors to help in developing targeted measures to reduce motorcycle crash injuries and fatalities.
We used interview data from a study of 2,399 novice motorcycle riders in Victoria, Australia from 2010 to 2012 linked with their police-recorded crash and offence data. The outcome measure was self and/or police reported crash. The association between potential risk factors and crashes was explored in multivariable logistic regression models.
In the multivariable analysis, riders who reported being involved in three or more near crashes had 1.74 times (95% CI 1.11-2.74) higher odds of crashing compared to riders who reported no near-crash events, and riders who participated in a pre-learner course had 1.41 times higher odds of crashing (95% CI 1.07-1.87) compared with riders who did not attend a pre-learner course. Riders who had been involved in a crash before the study had 1.58 times (95% CI 1.14-2.19) higher odds of crashing during the study period compared with riders who were not involved in a crash. Each additional month of having held a license and learner permit decreased the odds of crashing by 2%, and each additional 1,000 km of riding before the study increased the odds of crashing by 2%.
Measures of pre-learner training and riding experience were the strongest predictors of crashing in this cohort of novice motorcycle riders. At the time of the study there was no compulsory rider training to obtain a learner permit in Victoria and no on-road courses were available. It may be plausible that riders who voluntarily participated in an unregulated pre-learner course became or remained at high risk of crash after obtaining a rider license. We suggest systematically reviewing the safety benefits of voluntary versus mandatory pre-learner and learner courses and the potential need to include on-road components.
在所有道路使用者中，骑摩托车的人受伤和死亡的几率最高。这项研究旨在深入了解导致事故的风险因素，以便制定有针对性的措施，减少摩托车事故造成的伤害和死亡。
我们使用了 2010 年至 2012 年期间在澳大利亚维多利亚州对 2399 名新手摩托车骑手进行的一项研究中的访谈数据，这些数据与他们的警方记录的事故和违规数据相关联。结果测量是自我和/或警方报告的事故。在多变量逻辑回归模型中探讨了潜在风险因素与事故之间的关联。
在多变量分析中，报告发生过 3 次或更多次险些事故的骑手发生事故的几率是报告没有险些事故的骑手的 1.74 倍（95%CI 1.11-2.74），参加预学习者课程的骑手发生事故的几率是未参加预学习者课程的骑手的 1.41 倍（95%CI 1.07-1.87）。与未发生事故的骑手相比，在研究期间发生过事故的骑手发生事故的几率更高，是未发生事故的骑手的 1.58 倍（95%CI 1.14-2.19）。在研究期间，每个额外的持有驾照和学习许可证的月数都会降低 2%的事故几率，每个额外的 1000 公里的骑行都会增加 2%的事故几率。
在本新手摩托车骑手队列中，预学习者培训和骑行经验措施是导致事故的最强预测因素。在研究时，维多利亚州没有获得学习许可证的强制性骑手培训，也没有提供路考课程。可以合理地认为，自愿参加未经监管的预学习者课程的骑手在获得骑手执照后，仍然面临着较高的事故风险。我们建议系统地审查自愿性与强制性预学习者和学习者课程的安全效益，以及是否需要包括路考内容。
