Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 20;740:140109. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140109. Epub 2020 Jun 13.
This study investigated the connection between interannual variations in winter haze frequency over Beijing and different flavors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results showed that the haze frequency was highest during eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño winters and lowest during EP La Niña winters. No below-normal winter haze frequency years were observed during EP El Niño winters, and no above-normal years were observed during EP La Niña winters. However, the relationship between winter haze frequency and central-Pacific (CP) ENSO conditions was more complex, i.e., both above- and below-normal haze frequency years were equally probable during CP El Niño and CP La Niña winters, and the difference in the number of mean haze days associated with these flavors was exceptionally small. The nearly opposite atmospheric circulation patterns between EP El Niño and EP La Niña winters were responsible for the substantial difference in local winter haze frequency, as these patterns established favorable and unfavorable local meteorological conditions for haze formation, respectively. However, the diverse in situ haze frequency situations during CP El Niño and CP La Niña winters and the small relative differences between such winters could reflect the complexity of the CP ENSO's impacts on haze-related circulation anomalies. The results of this study may help improve winter haze frequency forecasts for Beijing through more accurate climatic predictions.
本研究调查了北京冬季雾霾频率的年际变化与不同类型厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）之间的关系。结果表明，雾霾频率在东部太平洋（EP）厄尔尼诺冬季最高，在 EP 拉尼娜冬季最低。在 EP 厄尔尼诺冬季没有观测到低于正常的冬季雾霾频率年份，在 EP 拉尼娜冬季也没有观测到高于正常的年份。然而，冬季雾霾频率与中太平洋（CP）ENSO 条件之间的关系更为复杂，即在 CP 厄尔尼诺和 CP 拉尼娜冬季，高于和低于正常的雾霾频率年份的可能性相同，与这些类型相关的平均雾霾天数的差异非常小。EP 厄尔尼诺和 EP 拉尼娜冬季之间几乎相反的大气环流模式是导致当地冬季雾霾频率显著差异的原因，因为这些模式分别为雾霾形成建立了有利和不利的当地气象条件。然而，CP 厄尔尼诺和 CP 拉尼娜冬季现场雾霾频率的不同情况以及这些冬季之间相对差异较小，可能反映了 CP ENSO 对与雾霾相关的环流异常的影响的复杂性。本研究的结果可能有助于通过更准确的气候预测来改善北京冬季雾霾频率的预测。
